The 3-9 season that plunged Michigan football into its darkest state since the early 1960s was entirely predictable.

For years, Michigan had been the outlier among the nine programs widely regarded as the most successful since the dawn of the two-platoon era. The Wolverines made 33 consecutive bowl trips, posted 23 straight winning seasons and hadn’t had a losing Big Ten record since Bump Elliott was coach. USC, the premier program of the 21st century, was barely .500 in three years under Paul Hackett. Texas, ranked No. 2 in both polls currently, had three losing seasons in five years under David McWilliams. Notre Dame, college football’s second winningest program after Michigan, has been a laughingstock of late. Alabama, Oklahoma, Penn State and Nebraska all suffered lean years. Even reigning four-time Big Ten champ Ohio State had a losing record as recently as 1988. While Michigan’s tumble last fall was precipitous - the Wolverines set undesirable school records for most losses and most points allowed - history shows it’s not necessarily the beginning of a prolonged decline. All of Michigan’s peers regained their winning ways in relatively quick fashion, or, in the case of Nebraska and Notre Dame, appear to be on the verge of a rebound. That good news, however, comes with a caveat: Rarely has a program righted itself in one season, and never, except in the case of Penn State and esteemed octogenarian Joe Paterno, has it taken just one coach. Philosophical differences

There are other mitigating factors. Alabama, Oklahoma and USC were slowed by their own self-induced NCAA sanctions. Penn State joined a new conference after years as an independent. And the SEC and Big 12 (formerly Big Eight) expanded. But Kent Stephens, curator and historian for the College Football Hall of Fame, said the rise, fall and rebirth of most major programs can be tied to coaching change. “The players come and go,” Stephens said. “The one consistency is, who is the coach? So I think the success of any program is on his doorstep. I don’t know what other reasons you could come up with, really.” Ohio State under John Cooper (4-6-1 in 1988), USC with Ted Tollner (4-6-1 in 1983), Oklahoma and John Blake (3-8 in 1996) and Nebraska under Bill Callahan (5-6 in 2004) all suffered declines in Year 1 of a new regime. Michigan’s falloff was even more pointed because its coaching change, from Lloyd Carr to Rich Rodriguez, came complete with a seismic shift in philosophy. Carr and his predecessors Gary Moeller and Bo Schembechler favored a conservative, sometimes-plodding run-first offense. Rodriguez pioneered the no-huddle spread-option during his early coaching days at Glenville State. Because the schemes require completely different personnel - rugged running backs and a pocket quarterback for the former; quick, elusive backs and a dual-threat quarterback for the latter - Michigan played last season with a collection of mismatched talent. The results were predictable. “I didn’t use that analogy before as far as scraping things to the bottom, sanding it down and redoing it, (but) in some respects it was there,” Rodriguez said. “Some of the methods and some of the way we do things are like starting over.” That’s not to say Rodriguez was either completely at fault or not to blame for last year’s misfortune. New scheme or not, Michigan returned just one offensive starter in 2008 and did not have a quarterback fit to run its system. The season before, with Jake Long, Mike Hart and Chad Henne, the Wolverines suffered an unprecedented loss to Appalachian State. Conversely, Rodriguez’s offense, approach or both scared off two potential starters who no doubt would have made life easier in quarterback Ryan Mallett and offensive lineman Justin Boren. And defensively, Michigan was beyond atrocious despite starting two NFL draft picks. Rodriguez said his decision to completely overhaul things rather than wade into change was best for the program. “I don’t take a job and say, OK, we’re here to build a team,” he said. "I take a job and say we’re here to build a championship program. And at Michigan, you’re here to build upon the tradition they already have, but you’re still trying to build a championship program. And that doesn’t happen over night.” Change is coming … but when

No one expected a miracle last year, though no one envisioned 3-9, either. This year, expectations are mixed despite Rodriguez’s track record of Year 2 turnarounds. At West Virginia, Rodriguez went 3-8 his first season and won nine games the next. As offensive coordinator at Clemson and Tulane, he oversaw similar about-faces, even taking the Green Wave to an undefeated season in 1998. Rodriguez said there’s reason to believe Michigan will be better this year, though he stopped short of making predictions. “I said last year there was some work being done, even though it was painful and we were losing, that will help us in years to come,” Rodriguez said. “And I still believe that. We’re not going to be a finished product as far as what I envision the program being this year, but we’ll be a lot further along than we were a year ago.” Rodriguez changed defensive coordinators in the off-season, firing Scott Shafer and hiring the aggressive Greg Robinson, a two-time Super Bowl champion with the Denver Broncos. He also brought in talent at the skill positions that should give Michigan a decidedly different look on offense. Running back Vincent Smith has made a quick impression playing behind an experienced line that returns four starters, and one of two true freshmen, Tate Forcier (below left) or Denard Robinson, (below right) should be the starting quarterback by season’s end.

“We think we’ve got the steps in motion to get it where everybody wants it,” Rodriguez said. “Unfortunately, it’s not happening as fast as I or anybody would like, but I still feel as confident as ever it’s going to happen. And I think our players and our coaches do as well.” If that sounds like a concession speech for this fall, think again. Rodriguez has his sights set on bringing Michigan its first national title since 1997. He’s realistic enough to know the odds are against that this year, but history could be on his side. Of the nine aforementioned programs, two won national titles in the BCS era with second-year head coaches: Ohio State and Jim Tressel and Oklahoma and Bob Stoops.

Could Michigan make it three? “I think everybody in our program would be disappointed if we’re not competing for a championship of some sort at the end of the year,” Rodriguez said. “That’s a pretty high goal. I’ve said this, a lot of things got to go right for us and a lot of things got to go wrong for other people, but, hey, nobody’s lost a game yet so we’re still there.” Dave Birkett covers the University of Michigan football team for AnnArbor.com. He can be reached at davidbirkett@annarbor.com or 734-623-2552.