This month's mild weather is great for anyone who lamented the cool summer and rugged early October.

But Ed Davidson, owner of Bivouac, is among the Ann Arbor store owners who are watching the weather as an indicator of how the holiday season will end up, sales-wise.

With his store on South State Street filled with outdoor gear, including popular down coats from brands like Patagonia and North Face, he's ready to sell to people who want to give the gift of warmth.

"I don’t know that I have a sense of where things are going because the weather has been so unseasonably warm," Davidson said. "We had a decent October, then Indian Summer moved to November. Really, now it's an issue of combining the two months of sales to see where I end up (for fall)."

Even the annual Michigan-Ohio State football game last weekend didn't help.

"Normally on a football Saturday, we sell lots of hats and gloves before a game," he said. "This weekend we did not."

And looking ahead, Davidson will be watching forecasts.

So far, the weather may cooperate: Black Friday could see snow flurries, but the high is forecast at 41. Then Saturday and Sunday should be back up to the mid-40s, about 4 degrees above average.

Davidson's store is among a clustering of apparel stores in the State-Liberty area, which includes national chains like Urban Outfitters and American Apparel, and boutiques like Poshh and Pitaya. He's been in his building for over two decades, and for many of those years has touted buying locally.

To make that easier for customers, he posted a sign 20 years ago saying that the store will match any price.

It's a policy that he continues, even as the Internet makes finding prices to match easier: "If the Internet is having a sale, so are we."

It's a policy that helps the store find a solid place in the area's "buy local" movement.

"Customers are so delighted that they can leave the money in Ann Arbor and not pay extra," Davidson said.

The economy is affecting Davidson in his inventory. He's stocked more conservatively, but so have suppliers.

"This year for the first time in a long time, if I want to reorder, I'm being told, 'Sorry, we're out.' That's frustrating, but you can't blame them," he said.

That's most acute for him on new items that he wasn't willing to take a big risk on - like a new fleece sweater from Patagonia that feels like a knit.

Popular items so far this year, besides down coats, are fleece and wool items.

But the ultimate number of unit sales will back to how cold it gets, Davidson said.

"I'm watching the weather," he said. "I'm like a farmer."