Michigan-Michigan State winner will become frontrunner to win Legends Division
Could offensive lineman Patrick Omameh (65) and the rest of the Michigan football team be a contender for the No. 1 spot in the Big Ten's new Legends Division? Legitimacy can start with a win Saturday at Spartan Stadium.
Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com
Things have been quiet this year, but it wasn't long ago that one was calling the other its little brother, and a coach was warning about pride coming before the fall. And, sure enough, the Michigan football team has fallen three consecutive times to Michigan State.
Clearly, no love is lost between these rivals.
But this year, there's something more riding on this game than bragging rights: Pole position for a Legends Division championship.
There's no question the winner of Saturday's matchup between No. 11 Michigan (6-0, 2-0) and No. 23 Michigan State (4-1, 1-0) will become the single greatest beneficiary of the Big Ten's divisional split this year.
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In the old format, this game would be just another between contenders fighting for one spot among 11. In a year that Wisconsin (5-0, 1-0) appears to be the league's preeminent team, and a true BCS title game contender, it might have been 10 teams fighting for zero spots.
And then a funny thing happened -- all the league's bigwigs got together, decided to let those Cornhuskers into the club, split the joint into two divisions and created a world in which Michigan-Michigan State has title implications in the third week of the Big Ten season.
Now, there are six teams fighting for one spot in a title game. Not bad! And, presto, the Wolverines and Spartans aren't grouped with Wisconsin, nor unbeaten Illinois (6-0, 2-0) for that matter. There's no question they're in the easier division this year.
In Michigan's case, it doesn't even have to play the Badgers, the first time that's happened since 2004 -- which, incidentally, was a Rose Bowl year. That's a terrific advantage.
To the point: The winner of Michigan-Michigan State has a clear path to the Legends Division championship.
Preseason division favorite Nebraska (5-1, 1-1) already has lost once, then nearly again to Ohio State, even though the Buckeyes have looked more Ohio than Ohio State this year. What once looked like a fearsome final two games for Michigan -- home dates against Nebraska and Ohio State -- now look rather manageable.
Who else is there in the Legends? The Wolverines already have beaten Northwestern and Minnesota and are atop the division at 2-0. A win against Michigan State would leave just Iowa and Nebraska as divisional opponents. Although both will be tricky, neither strikes as much fear as it once did, and both already have lost once.
Should the Wolverines win this week, they would be 3-0 in league play with an off week looming, then a winnable game against bottom-feeder Purdue. Then it's at Iowa, at Illinois and home against Nebraska and Ohio State -- a stretch that once looked intractable now appearing navigable. Maybe.
And if the Wolverines beat Michigan State, one that will have Big Ten title game implications.
(As an aside: Does this make Michigan State a more important game than Ohio State for Michigan this year? It depends on how you define "important," certainly, as The Game still is The Game. But in terms of the now, with the Buckeyes struggling and cross-divisional, there's clearly more at stake this week.)
PREDICTION
Michigan State is a team with a masterful defense and average offense. Michigan is a team with an almost-masterful offense, but better-than-average defense. Which wins out?
If the Wolverines limit their turnovers -- here's looking at you, Denard Robinson -- they win this game. The series traditionally is determined by which team rushes the ball more effectively (38 of the past 41 winners have done that), and Michigan's three runners are more prolific than Michigan State's, so it has a built-in advantage. The wildcard is turnovers. The Spartans feature the nation's No. 1 defense, so Michigan cannot afford to give away possessions or field position and still expect to win.
As long as they take care of the ball and rush as they should, the Wolverines break their three-game losing streak to the Spartans and emerge as the clubhouse leader to win the Legends Division. Robinson's experience last year against MSU (three picks, the start of the downfall) makes the difference.
Michigan 28, Michigan State 24
Kyle Meinke covers Michigan football for AnnArbor.com. He can be reached at 734-623-2588, by email at kylemeinke@annarbor.com and followed on Twitter @kmeinke.
Comments
Hawaiian Neal
Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 6:55 a.m.
...I forgot, DRob has 5 more interceptions (1 more per game average than Cousins) but he also has 4 more passing TD's!
Hawaiian Neal
Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 6:53 a.m.
Actually, Mr. Cousins only has 100± more yards for 30 more completions than DRob. MSU has one receiver with almost 600 yards. That leads me to believe Cousins isn't the QB most think he is. He's got 100± yards passing, fewer passing TD's and almost 1000 less running yards than DRob. That said, while DRob has more running yards than the entire MSU team, UM also has a running back now that has more yards than either of MSU's running backs. Couple that with the second string at OSU playing during that game and I could be wrong, but I'm seeing a Blue blow out looming.
Mick
Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 3:38 a.m.
Hey macabre, Cousins doesn't have that strong of an arm, he's ok I guess. If the wind is strong tomorrow than I actually like Denard's passing style, he throws more bullet type passes, whereas Cousins is more of a deep thrower, the wind might hurt him more, IMO. Let me ask you guys a question, what does the 3 game win streak for MSU have in common with seasons 2008, 09' and 10'? The WCIMFH, that's right, those 2 things will always be married to one another. He's gone, we win. We have a super coaching staff and things are only gonna get better going forward. We will make in game adjustments and we have a fast experienced team, as well as stronger, I like our chances a lot, M 28 MSU 17, maybe 28-24 if Sparty gets a late TD
Macabre Sunset
Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 10:05 p.m.
It's strong. The NFL is quite interested. Unfortunately, we're still locked into the RichRod offense because we don't have a quarterback who can throw the ball.
Tally10
Fri, Oct 14, 2011 : 9:30 p.m.
Last year UM actually moved the ball fairly well ( over 300yds ) against MSU, but turnovers killed them ( 3 in the red zone ), better care of the ball and 300 may have been 400+, DR made some first year, sophomore ( trying to do to much ) QB mistakes. Also, last year MSU had a better Offense going against a very young and inexperience UM Defense. This year UM's D is playing better while MSU's O is not playing as well, so hopefully, M can keep them under 21. MSU's D is pretty good, but I think M have the weapons to stress them more than they have been so far. If M line up and run right at them, they will not be successful, State can load the box and still cover the WR. I think if M spread them out from time to time to create bigger running lanes and use that quick hit short game like they did against Min ( hopefully will cut down on INT's ), then I think they'll be successful, long scoring drives and ball control, limit State's possessions because they do not have a high or quick scoring Offense. UM 24, MSU 14
heartbreakM
Fri, Oct 14, 2011 : 9:29 p.m.
Long season, too early to make predictions. Who knows about Wisconsin either? It's not like they have proven themselves against good competition (though I am not sure the B10 has any of that either). But this is a key game. UM has to win to get the edge for the division championship of course, but after 3 years of losses, it's time for them to right the ship, much as MSU must have felt in 2008 when the former coach took over and didn't know that MSU was a big game. I predict UM in a close win, but if the MSU D shuts down the running lanes, UM could be in for a long afternoon.
MRunner73
Fri, Oct 14, 2011 : 7:54 p.m.
First of all, this is a great match up. Second: could be one of the better Michigan-MSU rivalry games. Brady Hoke brings the same in state rivalry attitude that Mark Dantonio does. Therefore, this Wolverine team will be just hungry and focused to win. The Maize and Blue have more to prove because of the three losses hung on them. Does this add up to a Michigan victory? Tall order. It should be a very close game. Lots of if this or if that but we will have to see how it shakes out come noon Saturday. Going into OT wouldn't surprise me but I will predict a Michigan 21-20 win. GO BLUE!!!
missionbrazil
Fri, Oct 14, 2011 : 7:51 p.m.
I'm with you on this one Kyle. I think the MSU offense will struggle some against our D. The MSU D is highly rated, but ND scored 31 on them and thus they are not invincible. Coach Hoke and staff will have the game plan and will make the necessary adjustments if needed to pull this one out. Michigan 28 MSU 21
Tru2Blu76
Fri, Oct 14, 2011 : 7:37 p.m.
Thanks for the good analysis, Kyle. I might be wrong but I think a deeper look at the "Shoelace Question" might be worthwhile. Sure, we all know that No. 16 has been slow (too slow for fans, anyway) getting his Passing Groove. But it's also necessary to have a top-notch offensive line and a core of solid running backs AND really good receivers and tight ends to support the QB. On top of that, with Michigan, Shoelace has Wizard Borges up in the box, with his Wizard's Playbook behind him. The biggest "if" is IF the running backs will effectively counter one of the best rush defenses out there on Saturday. We all know that Michigan's vulnerability is in its greatest strength: one man, Denard Robinson. If the RBs can't run and the QB must do all the running AND still be a credible passer: then Michigan might fall (again) against Sparty. Both our QB and RBs depend on: a really good offensive line! Michigan's offensive linemen will have to have their BEST GAME against the Spartans' defense. If they do: Denard's Offense will shred through Dantonio's team as if they were that paper mache Spartan statue they have on their campus.
Macabre Sunset
Fri, Oct 14, 2011 : 7:34 p.m.
I wish I were as confident as Kyle about this one. Here's the problem... 1) Michigan State has the nation's leading defense right now. Including a front seven that has allowed just 2.2 yards per carry. 2) Winds will be gusting up to 40 mph tomorrow afternoon. 3) The Spartans, therefore, will fill the box and try and force Denard to pass into that wind. 4) Cousins, on the other hand, is a veteran passer with a strong arm and accuracy. He will be less affected. My prediction: MSU 20, Michigan 7. Sadly.
RJ12688
Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 5:20 a.m.
MSU may be leading statistically, but their defensive numbers are a product of not playing any competent offenses. They are far from the nations leading defense as far as size, speed, and over all talent. And about the wind effecting passing.. UM is the better rushing team, so i think a windy day tilts the odds in UM's favor.