Breaking down the Michigan-Bowling Green football game with the Toledo Blade's John Wagner
The Michigan football team has played at least one Mid-American Conference team each year since the 2000 season, going 14-1 in those games. This year's annual MAC opponent is Bowling Green, located 70 miles down the road, just south of Toledo, in Bowling Green, Ohio.
With the Falcons' starting quarterback out, Bowling Green isn't expected to win the game -- but UMass wasn't supposed to hang with Michigan last week, either.
John Wagner of the Toledo Blade covers Bowling Green and took a few minutes to chat about the game (noon, ESPN2).
Q: How does the injury to starting quarterback Matt Schilz change what Bowling Green wants to do? Who replaces him? In reality, how much of a shot does it cost BG of upsetting Michigan?
John Wagner: "First, the question of who replaces Matt Schilz at quarterback won't be answered until either Aaron Pankratz or Trent Hurley trots onto the field with BG's first offense on Saturday. Pankratz is a sophomore with more experience, including a good effort in the fourth quarter against Marshall last Saturday; Hurley, a true freshman, impressed the coaches during fall drills in preparation for the season.
"No matter who takes the snaps, it won't change what BG does much. It isn't as if Schilz is a drop-back passer and one of his replacements is a zone-option runner. All of the QB choices are very similar in terms of style of play. If anything, the only change is that the offense would have to be simplified, especially if Hurley runs it.
"As for the injury affecting BG's chances to win: of course it affects them negatively. One thing the Falcons need to do to be successful Saturday is have a very error-free performance by the offense. Having an inexperienced player make his first start in that environment isn't conducive to error-free play."
Q: With Schilz likely out, where is the strength of the Falcons? Where is the weakness?
JW: "The weakness is fairly easy to pinpoint: the inexperience of the team on both sides of the ball. Only three starters from last season are back on offense (and one of those, center Ben Bojicic, won't play because of injury), and only four are back on defense. What's more, even the seniors in the starting lineup are guys who are starting for the first time in their careers. So inexperience, and all the problems that causes (missed assignments, dealing with nerves, inexperience in dealing with situations, etc.) are the biggest weakness.
"In terms of strengths, there are talented players all over the field. On offense, Kamar Jorden leads the nation in receptions per game, while Willie Geter is a tough, shifty running back. On defense, LBs Eugene "Champ" Fells and Dwayne Woods have played well, and the defensive backfield has been making big plays. But I'd say the biggest strength is the team's attitude -- it has a real never-say-die spirit. Consider this: in the Marshall game, the Falcons had seen a 28-7 lead evaporate in one quarter, and they were facing a 28-28 tie with their starting QB out injured. Good excuse to fold, right? BG scored the final 16 points of the game and got contributions from the offense, defense and special teams to win."
Q: I know Dave Clawson said he's been asked about this game for six weeks. What is the mood around this team, this campus, going into playing Michigan?
JW: The Falcons all seem to look at this game as a great opportunity to face a tradition-rich program on a large stage, both in terms of fans in the stadium and television viewers. I don't think they are intimidated, but they also know that not having Schilz is a setback for the offense. The campus and the followers of the program are extremely excited, but remember this: in 2003, they played at Ohio State and gave the Buckeyes quite a battle. Now, that was a veteran team with talent all over the field, but if they had made a couple of plays (for example, a wide-open tight end dropped a pass in the end zone, and the Falcons threw an INT on their next play), they might have won. Not predicting a win Saturday; just saying that anything is possible, and this team knows it."
Q: How does Bowling Green deal with Denard Robinson?
JW: " That is the question, isn't it? Tie his shoelaces together the first time they tackle him, I guess. Seriously, BG coach Dave Clawson said the most impressive thing about Robinson wasn't his running -- although that was impressive. The most impressive thing was his ability to "make NFL throws" (Clawson's words). Robinson is a bad match-up for the Falcons; if they put a lot of players in the box, they make themselves susceptible to big plays (and they have given up a number of big plays early this season). My guess is that the Falcons will try to make someone else beat them, or at least make Robinson pass rather than run."
Q: What is the best case/worst case scenario for Bowling Green? In other words, what needs to happen for BG to win? What results in a blowout?
JW: "Best case: The Falcons score early to give the offense confidence. The defense continues to force turnovers -- and capitalizes on them like they did against Marshall, where they had two INTs returned for touchdowns. BG's special teams also have played well, and they must continue to be special Saturday. It takes a near-perfect game from the Falcons -- and some help from the Wolverines -- for BG to pull off the upset.
"Worst case: The Falcon offense struggles to move the ball, either failing to get first downs (bad) or turning the ball over (worse). Line protection for the QB and RBs has been an issue offensively. If the defense gives up big plays to put BG in a hole, that adds to the misfortune. If the BG offense puts the pressure on the defense to carry the game, eventually that will spell trouble.
"I'm usually not good at predictions, but that doesn't keep me from making them: I don't think BG will get blown out. The only reason I say this is that the Falcons have not shown any quit in any of their first three games. Michigan is going to have to play very well to get the blowout; if the Wolverines are just "OK," BG will find ways to stay in the game. And the Falcons are yet to give up on a game this season, so I see no reason for that this Saturday, either."
You can read Wagner's work at the Toledo Blade, check in on his blog "Falcon Fodder" and also follow him on Twitter @jwagnerblade.
Michael Rothstein covers University of Michigan basketball for AnnArbor.com. He can be reached at (734) 623-2558, by e-mail at michaelrothstein@annarbor.com or follow along on Twitter @mikerothstein
Comments
umgoblue47
Sat, Sep 25, 2010 : 8:35 a.m.
"it's time for the excuses for rr to stop" what don't you get? (we are 3-0) yet the same old same old from you... feel free to excuse your self from posting stuff that make's no sense... btw the only thing that will implode is your negativity!!! GO BLUE...
Sean T.
Sat, Sep 25, 2010 : 4:37 a.m.
We should leave Lloyd out of this one. i think that train has passed long ago.
jameslucas
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 6:41 p.m.
Stating a fact like this team is young is not an excuses, saying this team is young because Lloyd Carrs recruits dont have the stones to survive four years at Michigan would be an excuse.
3 And Out
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 6:16 p.m.
Good point Jaxon. It is time for the excuses for RR to stop. So many kids that he recruits can not make it and bounce out academically...there is depth going right out that window..... so much for being "young" if you cant keep and develop those players in to "old" ones. enough with the excuses... This team will implode in BT play unless somehow D Rob ups his game even more vs. better competition. We will see. That said, BG will be no match for us tomorrow... too many injuries and a lack of depth there... so wed better look ahead to IU immediately following the game because they are pretty good and will be very hungry after last years' loss to us.
jameslucas
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 6:15 p.m.
Jackson5 if you look at the roster you won't put your foot in mouth again.
3 And Out
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 6:12 p.m.
45-20 Blue. BG has too many questions on both sides of the ball to hang. The lack of depth that a mid level Mac team has will get them in the end.
jameslucas
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 6:10 p.m.
The offensive line is doing a great job, and so are the receivers. If you want something to worry about watch the kickers who knows what is going on with them. If you want to see some changes watch the rest of the special teams there is bond to be some experimentations.
Jaxon5
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 5:42 p.m.
L Steelmen, this is a team that has been "very young" for three years in a row now. By definition, that makes them "old" in college terms.
Sean T.
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 3:36 p.m.
Great assessment JamesLucas, this should be a scrimmage by halftime. I'm not quite sure Bowling Green will play as well without the starting QB. After game 2, I actually gave them a shot at being competitive but I think their shot is gone. We are too athletic for this squad but Bowling Green does use the same principle as any spread team....spread'em & pick'em! The defense may step up but I doubt it, so look for the Offense to run the show. Hail
Lokalisierung
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 2:43 p.m.
Yeah, I mean we all know DR can give you 5 yards a play with his legs, there's no mystery there. Can he stick in the pocket and have recievers run perfect routes, and can the O-line block for the rushers etc etc.
jameslucas
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 2:33 p.m.
I think Lokalisierung is basically right in his statement that Michigan will treat this game as a scrimmage. I think they already know shoelaces can pass and run. But the key to this offence is the quarterback being able to read the defense and make the correct decisions in games. Any quarterback in collage can use practice making game decisions, even back ups. There are still some things to be learned about how the running backs perform in games. The defensive line is pretty good. The rest of the defense there are too many questions to even list here. But I dont think we will see many changes here just because of the lack of options so I think we will see more coachable moments at the end of the game.
Lokalisierung
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 11:15 a.m.
I don't expect a blow out of a monster DR day. I think they'll use this as another practice scrimmage to work on DR passing and Mich Rushing. No question they'll win.
Sean T.
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 10:46 a.m.
Tulsatom, I willing to bet the University of Tulsa has better talent than Bowling Green. I'm sure you have more insight, thus your name but Tulsa has some talent over there. The WR corps and RB/HB's are quite good and the QB's are as good as ours or better depending on how you rate talent. I'never liked Coach Graham's defensive scheme but it works in CUSA! (A smallish 3-3-5 is all too familiar.)
Lorain Steelmen
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 10:24 a.m.
UM fans need to remember that this is a VERY young Michigan team, particularly on defense. They will be inconsistent all season. The trick will be for them to improve each week, and try to slow teams dow, so that the UM offense can pick up the W. I expect to see both Forcier and Gardner get reps, this week, and will continue to do so over the course of the season.
tulsatom
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 10:11 a.m.
I hope U-M learned its lesson from last week and doesn't take Bowling Green for granted. If the Univ of Tulsa could beat Bowling Green a couple of weeks ago, U-M (on paper) should be able to handle them pretty easily but you know what happens when we ass-u-me, right? I hope this is the week when Gardner and Forcier see some playing time with the game already decided, as well as other reserves.
Sean T.
Fri, Sep 24, 2010 : 10:04 a.m.
I think he was being "nice or coy" saying Denard has made NFL throws. But I haven't seen one of those passes yet, so I'm betting they will try to force Michigan to pass by stacking the box. I truly think Denard will dink and dunk them to death until one of his WR's breaks one like Stonum did last week. It's obvious He doesn't throw deep or at least throw deep well. A new QB is a wild-card because if he's focused and wants to win the job he may play very well or he may flounder because of the pressure. Bowling Green puts athletes in space,(mostly passing) similar to our offense so the defense should be used to it, so I'm expecting a better performance than last week. But if the Falcons put up a lot of points then we'll never get the defense shored up this year. I'm expecting another win because our athletes are superior......but!