Where will Michigan end up seeded in next week's Big Ten tournament? It all hinges on one game - Saturday's regular-season finale against Michigan state.

If Michigan wins, it clinches a first-round bye and would play in the second game of the afternoon session Friday, March 11 (ESPN).

If it loses, it is likely the No. 6 seed, playing the No. 11 seed at 7:30 p.m. on Thursday, March 10 (Big Ten Network).

How does each scenario break down?

If Michigan wins and finishes 9-9:
Will finish no worse than a tie for fourth. It would also clinch a bye in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. Here's how:

Scenarios:
If Michigan, Illinois, Penn State and Michigan State all finish at 9-9. In that scenario, Michigan would be 4-1 in that pairing, Illinois would be 3-2, Michigan State would be 2-4 and Penn State would be 2-4. So Michigan would be the No. 4 seed, Illinois the No. 5 seed, Penn State would be the No. 6 and Michigan State would be the No. 7 because both PSU and MSU would have identical records against every team in the league except Iowa with PSU being 1-0 and MSU being 1-1.

If Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois are tied at 9-9: In that scenario, Michigan would be 2-1 in the pairing, Illinois would be 2-1 and Michigan State would be 2-2. So Illinois would be the No. 4 seed, Michigan would be the No. 5 seed and Michigan State would be the No. 6 seed.

If Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State are tied at 9-9: Michigan would be 4-0 in that pairing, Michigan State would be 1-3 and Penn State would be 1-3. Using the aforementioned scenario above, Michigan would be the No. 4 seed, Penn State would be the No. 5 seed and Michigan State would be the No. 6 seed.

If Michigan, Illinois and Penn State are tied at 9-9: Michigan would be 2-1 in that scenario, Illinois would be 2-1 and Penn State would be 1-3 so Illinois would be the No. 4 seed, Michigan would be the No. 5 seed and Penn State would be the No. 6 seed.

In two-team tie scenarios, head-to-head record would be the determining factor between the 4 and 5 seeds.

If Michigan loses and drops to 8-10:
It is likely locked into the No. 6 seed. Here’s how:

Scenarios:
If Michigan, Illinois, Penn State and Minnesota are tied: Michigan would be 3-2, Ilinois would be 3-1, Penn State would be 2-4 and Minnesota would be 2-3. In that scenario Illinois would be the No. 5 seed, Michigan would be the No. 6 seed, Minnesota would be No. 7 and Penn State No. 8.

If Michigan, Illinois and Penn State are tied: Michigan would be 2-1, Illinois would be 2-1 and Penn State would be 1-3. Illinois would be the No. 5 seed because it was 1-1 against Wisconsin and Michigan was 0-2. Michigan would be the No. 6 seed and Penn State the No. 7.

If Michigan, Penn State and Minnesota are tied: Michigan would be 3-1, Minnesota would be 2-2 and Penn State would be 1-3. Michigan would be the No. 6 seed, Minnesota the No. 7 seed and Penn State the No. 8 seed.

If Michigan and Illinois are tied at 8-10 with Penn State and Michigan State above them at 9-9: Illinois would be the No. 6 seed, Michigan would be the No. 7 seed.

If Penn State and Michigan are tied: Michigan would be the No. 6, Penn State the No. 7.

Big Ten bracket
Big Ten tiebreaker rules

Michael Rothstein covers University of Michigan basketball for AnnArbor.com. He can be reached at (734) 623-2558, by e-mail at michaelrothstein@annarbor.com or follow along on Twitter @mikerothstein