Trying to make sense of state rankings and "other" sports predictions
One of the best matchups on this week’s slate of high school events that only moms and girlfriends care about is in soccer. Tuesday, the fourth-ranked in Division 2 Dexter Dreadnaughts take on the should-be-ranked-in-Division 1 Saline Hornets.
State rankings don’t make sense sometimes. Saline has been consistently playing, and most often beating, ranked opponents, yet dropping in the Michigan High School Soccer Coaches Association’s poll.
The Hornets were ranked ninth to begin the season, have compiled a 10-1-2 record against some of the best competition in the state since, yet dropped to honorable mention and, last week, fell off the radar completely.
"(Rankings) don’t mean anything, and we try to reinforce that,” said Saline coach Brian Lampman. “We continue to win and we continue to drop off. It’s ok, the kids get a kick out of it. They think it’s funny.”
The drop is laughable not just considering Saline’s record, but its schedule. Saline’s only loss was in the first week of the season to Warren DeLesalle, currently an honorable mention in Division 1 and, at the time of the match, ranked first and among six Michigan teams receiving votes for national ranking.
So far this season, Saline has beaten
Petoskey: Ranked second in D2, 2008 state champions. Flint Powers: Ranked sixth in D3. Grand Haven: Honorable mention in D1.
And tied
Dearborn: Honorable mention in D1. Livonia Stevenson: Honorable mention in D1 at time of match, 2008 state runner-up.
Strong record, check. Strength of schedule, check. History of sustained success (the Hornets have been to three final fours and one state final in six years), check. So why no ranking?
Lampman provided some historical perspective.
“We went to the state final in 2003, and the next year lost in the final four and during our playoff run beat (Livonia) Stevenson,” he recalled. Stevenson finished fifth in the rankings that year, Saline finished ninth. “That was kind of my indoctrination into the process.”
“Sometimes it’s hard because it’s impossible to keep tabs on every team across the state and you rely on other coaches,” said Dexter coach Scott Forrester, divisional chair in charge of ranking for Division 2. “If you look at strength of schedule, I think Saline should be well thought of.”
When Forrester’s Dreadnaughts take on Lampman’s Hornets Tuesday night under the lights, rankings will be far from anyone’s mind.
“I know we’re Division 2, but I like to think we have some tradition, and that we’d be a little bit of a trophy that I’m sure they’d like to add to their win column,” said Forrester. “I predict it’ll be a great game. We’ll do our part to hold up our end, and I’m sure Saline will do the same.”
So bring $1.50 to buy a hot chocolate and keep warm at Hornet Stadium Tuesday, but don’t bring a state ranking. Fact of the matter is, they're worthless.
PREDICTIONS
Last week I went 5-1-1, and was saved from public humiliation by everyone trusting my opinion going along with my picks. The only pick the readers and I differed on was Ypsilanti vs. Lincoln volleyball, who both played at an SEC quad, but didn’t face each other. Go figure.
The sooner readers realize that 5-1-1 is an anomaly and that I have unbelievably bad luck when it comes to making picks, the sooner you’ll all have a chance at beating me. As a buddy of mine/reader/degenerate gambler who knows my history of bad picks so delicately put it via Facebook message:
“If only there was a way to bet on these events. I know there is a boatload of money to be made from going against your picks. I feel sorry for all the schools you have chosen.”
Without further adieu, this week’s predictions:
MONDAY Pioneer, Saline, Lincoln at Ypsilanti, girls golf: Saline has been a cut above the rest as a team in the SEC, so instead of having a team pick, let’s look at individual scorers. Pioneer’s Lauren Phillips and Paige Munroe have shown the ability to shoot in the 30s recently, while Saline’s Karla Gross has been Steady Eddie around 41 all year. Inclement weather could effect scoring conditions.Phillips, 42.
TUESDAY Dexter at Saline, boys soccer: Saline and Dexter have quickly become the class of their respective SEC divisions, and two of the top programs in the state. Saline has a chance to make it three straight years without a home loss, and they’ll do it under the lights on senior night. What will happen when the Dreadnaughts’ unstoppable force, first team All-State striker Jonathan Jebson (15 goals) meets the immovable Hornets’ defense (eight shutouts)? Saline, 2-1.
WEDNESDAY Pioneer, Skyline, Bedford, Monroe, Saline at Huron, boys tennis: This is technically an SEC Red meet, but let’s face it, it’s a Huron vs. Pioneer rematch. Pioneer tied Huron at home two weeks ago, and top-ranked Detroit Catholic Central last week, but I like the River Rats on their home court. Huron.
SEC Tournament at Bedford, girls golf: Saline has been dominant as a team, but beware of the seventh-ranked Kicking Mules, playing 18-holes on their home course with one of the best individual scorers, Becca Porter. Saline, 359.
THURSDAY Clinton at Whitmore Lake, girls volleyball: Clinton is a perfect 7-0 in Tri-County Conference play and can smell a championship. They’ll have their hands full against the defending TCC champs. Clinton, 3-1.
FRIDAY Huron at North Farmington, boys soccer: Huron should have no problem passing its first out-of-conference test, and Ben Patterson should be able to bury a few to add to his 16 goals and eight assists on the season. Huron, 5-1.
SATURDAY Pioneer and Huron at Birmingham Groves Invitational: Pioneer’s normally a gimme in water polo, but when the field includes seven of state’s top 10 teams, it’s a little more complicated, so I'll play the odds. Field.
Now it's your turn to play along by making picks below. If the readers beat me, I’ll subject myself to a conditioning drill of choice from one of the teams that I incorrectly picked to lose.
MONDAY
TUESDAY
WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY
FRIDAY
SATURDAY
Pete Cunningham covers sports for AnnArbor.com. He can be reached by e-mail at petercunningham@annarbor.com, or by phone at 734-623-2561. You can follow him on Twitter @petcunningham.
Comments
Pete Cunningham
Mon, Sep 28, 2009 : 10:13 p.m.
I wish I had the time and knowledge to review every event, but sadly that's not the case. Please DagnyJ, Marciat, and others, help me out and use this medium to promote some of the other "other" sports I've neglected.
DagnyJ
Mon, Sep 28, 2009 : 8:35 p.m.
Here's some HHS girls matchups this week: Thursday: field hockey at University Liggett; swimming at home against Lincoln. Friday: swimming at Rockford Saturday: swimming at Holland
Indicat
Mon, Sep 28, 2009 : 5:22 p.m.
What about SEC White Division boys tennis on Wednesday in Chelsea?
DagnyJ
Sun, Sep 27, 2009 : 3:59 p.m.
What about field hockey?