Phil Steele, who puts out one of the most consistently accurate preseason magazines annually, talked with AnnArbor.com about the Big Ten race and Michigan’s chances of a turnaround in the 2009 season.

A. I think Ohio State’s going to be the preseason favorite, but I personally have Penn State winning it. Penn State gets both Iowa and Ohio State at home, which I feel is huge. Penn State’s got my No. 1 set of linebackers in the country with Navorro Bowman returning and Sean Lee coming back from missing all of last year. So they have quality skill players with Darryl Clark, who had fine year at quarterback, and then Evan Royster, perhaps the top running back in the Big Ten. I think when you line up the talent with the schedule; they’ve got a chance of running the table this year. Ohio State’s right up there despite all the losses in the draft. In fact, they’re No. 1 in points lost in the draft this year next to USC. They also had plus-16 turnovers, which generally the next year after you have plus double-digit turnovers you have a weaker record. But they’re strong along the lines, they do have to play Penn State on the road, which will be the only Big Ten game they’ll probably be an underdog in. They also play USC at home, but they’re just an upset of Penn State away from winning it. And then the other two teams that I have at the very top, I’ve got Iowa up there, although they have a brutal schedule. They have to play Penn State, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Ohio State all on the road. Sort of reminds me a little bit of last year’s Alabama team. They were a team that lost four games the previous year - all four were close losses. Iowa’s losses last year were by 1, 5, 3 and 3. They could easily have been an unbeaten team. Everybody dismissed Alabama last year because of their tough schedule. They had four games they would probably be an underdog in on the road. Iowa’s in the same situation this year, but they’re strong along the lines, and I think they’re going to get much better quarterback play than they had last year. And then my surprise team in the Big Ten this year is Illinois. The big stat that stands out to me is that Illinois was plus-86 yards per game in Big Ten play last year, which is more indicative of about a 7-1 team. They played far better than their 5-7 record would indicate. Probably the best offense coming back. Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn and company, should get better play out of the defense. And I only have them as an underdog in two games all year, at Ohio State and then home against Penn State. So I think Illinois is going to be a surprise team. Then you look at the rest of the Big Ten; it is a much-improved league because you’ve got teams like Minnesota and Northwestern, which I have lower in the standings that are definitely bowl-caliber squads. I’ve got Michigan State up there. I have them tied for fourth in the Big Ten along with Iowa this year. It’s (Mark) Dantonio’s best team in his three seasons. He’s got 15 returning starters this year. They have a tough schedule in Big Ten play. They have to play Wisconsin, Illinois on the road, they also play Penn State at home. And then I’ve got Michigan, and I’ve actually got them tied for sixth, partially due to their schedule, but I think they’re going to be a vastly improved team. When you look at Michigan, I draw a lot of parallels to Rich Rodriguez in his first year at West Virginia. He took over a team at West Virginia that was a perennial bowl squad, one that had scored about 30 points per game. His first year at West Virginia, they did not have a mobile quarterback. They won three games his first year, then after that the next six years, six bowls, three top-10 finishes, 30 points per game every year afterward because he had a mobile quarterback. And, granted the quarterbacks this year are true freshmen in Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson, but they’re both mobile, they fit the schemes better, they’ve got my No. 17-rated offensive line, No. 24-rated defensive line. Last year’s defense underperformed because the offense went three-and-out too often and also turned the ball over a lot. They were minus-10 in turnovers. This year’s defense, while not as experienced, will be much stronger because of the fact the offense will hold onto the ball longer. And when you look at Michigan’s schedule this year, they’re probably going to be an underdog at Michigan State, at Iowa, at Illinois, at Wisconsin and even, they’ve got home games against Penn State, Ohio State, Notre Dame - three teams that I rank in the top 10 of my magazine as well. So it’s a very tough schedule, but I don’t have them a big underdog in any of those games so I look for a much improved Michigan team this year and I’ve got them going to the Champs Sports Bowl, playing Miami of Florida. Q. What’s the best-case scenario for Michigan and what’s the worst-case scenario this season?

A. With that schedule there’s a possibility they could be an underdog in seven games this year, so worst-case scenario would be a second straight losing season and maybe five wins. I don’t foresee that happening. Best-case scenario? There’s a lot of games, let’s say they beat Notre Dame, Penn State, Ohio State all at home, I only have them a three-point underdog in most of those games. They can steal a Wisconsin game on the road. The Michigan State game looks pretty tough. I would say best-case scenario could be 10 wins this year. I think Michigan’s got that opportunity. I looked at neither the best or worst case, I’m more middle of the road, seven or eight wins, but I think they have the potential to win as many as 10 or as few as five. Q. Which game is a bigger barometer for Michigan’s season, Week 2 at home against Notre Dame or the first road game Oct. 3 at Michigan State?

A. Both are going to be very difficult this year because Michigan’s loaded this year. But looking at last year’s Michigan-Notre Dame game, Michigan really outgained Notre Dame last year. Remember, they had a whole bunch of turnovers in that. They had the 388-260 yard edge and that game was on the road and it was played in miserable conditions. So I think the potential is there for (a win against) Notre Dame. I would be concerned about the first road start. When you have a true freshman quarterback making his first road start, it’s the first time he’s played in front of that many hostile fans, that is going to be a difficult one. And, of course, (Mike) Hart’s comments two years ago really had Michigan State fired up for that little brother type of thing, they’re always going to be well motivated when Michigan comes to town. So I think the Michigan State game’s going to be the bigger problem. Q. You mentioned the freshmen quarterbacks. How much does Michigan’s season hinge on their development?

A. A lot. But the thing I like is that expectations are low and when you have the No. 17-rated offensive line in front of them, they’ve got a top-25 set of running backs and they’re working in a quarterback-friendly offense, one where you don’t have to dissect a defense as much as you would in a pro-style attack. Rodriguez likes to have his quarterbacks run and be mobile, and I think it’s easier for a freshman to fit in. So I think they’ll play well this year. And quarterback is a huge part of the offense. As we saw last year, when Rodriguez did not have quarterbacks that fit his system, Michigan struggled. Q. Why do you think Michigan’s offensive line will be much improved this year?

A. I have them the No. 17 offensive line in the country. You’ve got basically all five starters back. Last year was the first year of Rodriguez’s system. This year they’re in the second year. They’re much more familiar with the system. When I judge an offensive line, a lot of times I do it statistically. You look at Michigan last year, only 3.9 yards per carry, 22 sacks allowed. In a Rodriguez offense, those stats are going to greatly improve this year because with a mobile quarterback you’re going to improve your yards per carry. Instead of getting negative carries out of the quarterback, you get positive carries. Bring those numbers up, sacks will go down, so I think the offensive line ratings are going to greatly go up this year. Q. Who do you have as your national champ and who’s a sleeper for the BCS title game?

A. I think everybody’s pick for the national champ this year is going to be Florida. And last year my magazine was one of the very few - Georgia was the preseason No. 1 last year, I had Florida No. 1 in my magazine and they delivered for me. This year, everybody’s going to be on the Gators because they’ve got 98.9 percent of their tackles returning, the entire defensive two-deep is back, and that’s from a defense that allowed 12.9 points per game, so they’ve got the best defense in the country. Offensively, they got my No. 2-rated offensive line, No. 8 set of running backs, No. 10 receivers. They got some guy named Tim Tebow at quarterback, who I voted for the Heisman last year. And if you’re looking for a flaw, you’re not going to find it on special teams. They’ve got an excellent kicker in Jonathan Phillips, top-notch punter in Chas Henry, one of the best return men in the game in Brandon James. Florida may just be favored by double digits in every game this year, so I think they’re the clear-cut favorite for the title. I expect three teams to really challenge to play for the other spot which would be Texas, Oklahoma and USC, no surprises there. But if you’re looking for someone that isn’t normally on the radar that has a shot at getting there, look no further than Mississippi. They’ve got a great schedule this year. It’s a Mississippi team that Houston Nutt inherited a lot of talent that Ed Orgeron had recruited, and they’ve got my No. 4-rated defensive line, No. 16 set of linebackers. You look at their schedule, I rate it the No. 77 schedule in the country. I actually have them favored in all 12 games. They do not have to play Florida or Georgia during the season. They get LSU and Alabama, two other top-10 teams, at home. The non-conference schedule is easy. They could very well be 12-0 and playing Florida, 12-0, for the SEC title game. And last year Mississippi gave Florida their only loss of the year and they did that in the Swamp, so they could be one of those teams that upsets the apple cart, knocks off everybody’s preseason No. 1 team.