For Argument's Sake: Two weeks until the opener
The midpoint of fall camp is here. Michigan was scheduled to hold its first full-scale scrimmage on Saturday and media day is Sunday.
With that in mind, AnnArbor.com sportswriters Dave Birkett and Michael Rothstein talk about what they've seen so far and what they're still waiting on two weeks before the Wolverines' Sept. 5 season-opener against Western Michigan.
Michael Rothstein: So, Dave, we're two weeks into practice here. Besides that the Michigan coaching staff has much more diversified musical interests, the thing that has stuck out to me has been, unsurprisingly, the quarterbacks. Everyone loves a good quarterback competition and while I think Rich Rodriguez knows who he's going to start against Western Michigan, I don't think he's going to give any hints. Hence Nick Sheridan still getting first-team reps whenever the media shows up. That said, I don't think it'll be Sheridan and if it is, I'd be pretty well surprised even though he's going up against two true freshmen. Personally, I think the guy is Tate Forcier, but I'm also convinced everyone is going to go through this 12 months from now, too, when Devin Gardner steps on campus. What's stuck out to you?
Dave Birkett: Michigan is in trouble if Nick Sheridan is its quarterback. We saw what he could do last year. No sense going through that exercise again. One of the two freshmen is going to start the opener, probably Forcier. He's the most complete quarterback on the roster, and Michigan can't afford another slow start. But, as I wrote the other day, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Robinson gets a crack later in the year. Robinson's extremely raw as a passer and Michigan will be in for some long days if he's under center, but he's a difference maker - his speed is legit - and you need difference makers to win in the Big Ten. One thing I'm wondering is how good the defense is. They've given up a lot of big plays in camp, but defensive backs Donovan Warren, Boubacar Cissoko and Brandon Smith have all had standout practices, and freshman cornerback J.T. Turner had an interception in end-zone team drills Friday. The secondary is going to be tested early by Western Michigan and Notre Dame. They need to be ready.
MR: While you're concern is the secondary, I'm looking a little bit closer to the ball. Brandon Graham is an elite defensive end. Mike Martin has the potential to be a very good defensive tackle in the Big Ten this year, but the depth on the defensive line is thinner than Kate Moss. And that's not good for defensive linemen - who need to be big and need as many bodies as possible to keep them fresh. Considering Rich Rodriguez said the line is a couple injuries away from asking offensive lineman John Ferrara to move back to defense, that's not a good sign. And this is where it could kill the secondary: If Michigan can't find some depth, the line will tire in the fourth quarter. This will hurt the pass rush and the ability to stop the run, which would leave Warren, Cissoko, Smith, Turner and safeties Troy Woolfolk and Mike Williams hanging out alone. Against quarterbacks like Tim Hiller and Jimmy Clausen, that could be disastrous. All of this plays off to starting fast - both within the season and individual games. The more games Michigan can have at least close to wrapped up by the start of the fourth quarter, the better chance they have. That said, I don't see that happening but four times (Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Delaware State, Purdue). But can the offense score enough?
DB: Michigan ranked last in the Big Ten in scoring offense last year and the only real change is at quarterback. It's a big one, but it's also a true freshman under center and that's means there'll be inconsistency and the occasional mind-numbing mistake. With that in mind, a lot of what the offense does is going to revolve around the line and whether Brandon Minor can stay healthy. It was a little disconcerting to see Minor miss time early in camp with post-concussion symptoms. That was the right move and not a big deal in itself, but Michigan can't afford not to have its best back on the field. I think Minor and some combination of Carlos Brown, Michael Shaw and true freshman Vincent Smith could make for a dangerous backfield, with Smith being one of the most pleasant surprises of camp. I'm not as confident in the passing game.
MR: You're forgetting, though, that Michigan flirted with using a bunch of other running backs last year besides Minor (Hello, Sam McGuffie) and that might have contributed to Michigan's inability to score. Plus, the Wolverines needed to learn an entirely new offense, and one that wasn't suited for any of the then-quarterbacks to play. I still maintain they should have considered Artis Chambers back there before he transferred. He played quarterback at Snider High School in Fort Wayne and had good speed. Plus, he ran the option. But anyway, last year is last year. I think Michigan will score more points than a year ago. Rich Rodriguez' teams always seem to be able to do that (remember the 70-spot West Virginia put on Rutgers). But will it be enough this year? Still not sure of that.
DB: Michigan couldn't score last year because its quarterback play was terrible and the offensive line, at least early, was a sieve. Throw in turnover problems and a defense that can't stop anyone and you have 3-9. I don't think anyone expects a repeat of that this year, but I'm not sure anyone knows exactly what the Wolverines are, either. Besides some clarity at the quarterback position, what do you want to see over these next two weeks?
MR: I see a lot of nothingness in our future over the next two weeks. From about the middle of August until the first game are possibly my least favorite weeks of the year because barring an injury/suspension/act of God, there's not much more we'll be able to tell before the first game. That's when it really gets interesting. That said, I think Michigan needs to get a hold of its kicking situation. None of the candidates looked particularly impressive to me in practice when I've watched them. They make them, they just look pretty shaky. Also, it'll be interesting to see which freshmen - Rodriguez said upward of 10 - actually put themselves in a two-deep situation. As for what else I'd like to see over the next two weeks: Brett Favre retire again, Maria Sharapova put some hurting on people at the U.S. Open and the movie "Inglorious Basterds." Heard it was great.
DB: I can do without Favre. Sharapova is overrated. And I hear you on "Inglorious Basterds." As for Michigan, while we all sit and wait for Rodriguez to name Forcier the starter, I'm also curious to see the development of Brandon Herron at defensive end and J.T. Turner at cornerback. Herron's a heck of an athlete, and Michigan needs a big season from him to compliment Brandon Graham in the pass rush. Turner is talented enough to be a playmaker. If he forces his way into nickel packages, I'll feel a lot better about the defense come Sept. 5.
Comments
Champswest
Sun, Aug 23, 2009 : 8:03 p.m.
Anyone expecting double digit wins is sitting themselves up for big disappointment. I see 5 wins on the schedule that I am comfortable with, anymore than that is a bonus. Until they play a few games, who knows what we have. Have we already forgotten last year when people were talking 10-2, 8-4 at the worst and got upset with Kirk Herbstreit when he said UM would only win 6.
MetricSU
Sun, Aug 23, 2009 : 8:16 a.m.
Michigan should have double digit wins this year. Sure they are young, but they just have too much speed for the rest of the conference. RR will restore respect to our league. They will be so well tuned by the OSU game that I see a nice woodshedding coming for Tressel. Go Blue!!!
bigblue
Sun, Aug 23, 2009 : 1:46 a.m.
i heard sam webb on the insider say that gardner would redshirt if he had to. if he doesn't redshirt and he and forcier play well is there any chance of robinson playing a percy harvin type roll in this offense?
Tru2Blu76
Sun, Aug 23, 2009 : 12:39 a.m.
DB wrote: " If he forces his way into nickel packages, I'll feel a lot better about the defense come Sept. 5" --- I'll feel a lot better (or not) by around the first week of November. That's because I believe we're going to see pretty typical "development curve" for the Wolverines this season. I mean of course: when they are pitted against real competition. And aside from Coach Rodriguez not noticing that Justin Feagan was a walking-talking crime wave unto himself, my only other criticism of him is that he didn't seem really dedicated to building a solid defensive unit. It may be just my lack of insider knowledge, but all the attention seemed to be on recruiting quarterbacks and accelerating them into playing time qualification. Of course, I'm an old timer when it comes to Wolverine football - I fear I will miss seeing dominating defense from them for at least a while to come. Just please prove me wrong, Coach.