Previewing Michigan-Illinois
Every week, AnnArbor.com sportswriters Dave Birkett and Mike Rothstein preview Michigan's upcoming football game. This week, they debate what happened to Illinois and whether Michigan will become bowl eligible.
Alan Warren | The Ann Arbor News
Michael Rothstein: Ever feel like you're in the same boat of watching the same thing week after week. Welcome to the world of Illinois. Or, for that matter, much of Michigan's season, too. This game presents a lot of intrigue for me. I can't believe Illinois is this bad, but apparently the Illini are. It was, by far, my worst pick of the season. Juice Williams has regressed. Arrelious Benn can't get the football and the defense, well, if you think Michigan's defense is bad...
Dave Birkett: I do think Michigan's defense is bad, as a matter of fact, but having watched Illinois play twice, I can safely say the Illini's defense is worse. I'll cut them a little bit of slack in that they lost two of their best defenders (Martez Wilson and Miami Thomas) to injury, but they haven't held an FBS team to fewer than 24 points all year. As for Michigan, I know everyone's a little down now coming off the Penn State game and with three straight Big Ten losses and all the off-field turmoil swirling. But just as everyone got a little carried away with the 4-0 start, people aren't giving Michigan enough credit now. I expect a big bounce back this week.
MR: I understand your entire logic and reasoning. In some cases, I agree with it, too. I don't think Michigan is the worst team in the Big Ten and I absolutely think Illinois is. But just because you're the worst team doesn't mean you have the worst talent level as Illinois has some NFL players on it. My point, though, is this. I don't think Michigan is that much better than Illinois, at least not what I've seen this season. The Wolverines - this is often a characteristic of building teams - have played to the level of the opponent in most of their games this year. And if I'm Rich Rodriguez, that is what scares me. With this year's Michigan team I think the lines (save Brandon Graham) haven't been given enough credit for what they've done and freshman quarterback Tate Forcier, as you said, maybe got a little too hyped too soon (and I'm admittedly guilty on that one). I don't think Michigan was as bad as it looked last week, but I think you're giving the Wolverines more credit than they maybe deserve. That defensive back seven/eight is pretty shaky and quarterback play, well, it hasn't been good.
DB: If Benn had someone who could consistently get him the ball, I'd have no doubt he'd be in for a big game. But Williams hasn't shown he can do that this year and it's a little too early to expect much out of backup Jacob Charest. Technically, Illinois is still in the bowl hunt and the game is at home (in one of the least intimidating Big Ten environments) and on Halloween, so I guess anything can happen. But Michigan's been able to put points on every bad defense it's played this year. With or without Brandon Minor and David Molk, I don't think that's going to be a problem Saturday.
MR: I agree with your assessment, except the Illinois defense has been going against the zone read option in practice for a lot of the year since that's a good portion of what the Illini run as well. So I don't think the adjustment factor will be there. That said, I expect Michigan to score a bunch. I think Illinois will score as well. Losing Minor, if he is, in fact, out, will be critical but if Carlos Brown can stay in the game and not fumble you have to like the Wolverines at least a little bit. I'm taking Michigan, but I'm taking the Wolverines close, 28-21, with a late turnover by Juice.
DB: If that happens, I hope Ron Zook goes all Mike Leach and blames "fat little girlfriends" for Illinois missing out on a bowl game this year. Actually, I think the game will be close, too - for a quarter. When everybody's jumping off the bandwagon I see signs of life ahead. Brown's going to have a big day like all running backs do against Illinois, and Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson both cure their turnover problems, at least for a day. Michigan in a romp, 42-21.
Comments
Macabre Sunset
Fri, Oct 30, 2009 : 8:58 p.m.
Michigan has consistently ranked ahead of West Virginia in recruiting. Every year that there's data, going back well into the '90s. I read the blog report, RichRod completely ignored the defense in his first recruiting season, probably because he was obsessed with the quarterback now wearing red and gray. Coach Gimmick's poor results? Quite simply because he's in over his head competing in a top conference. Gimmicks don't work at this level. Don't shoot the messenger. I'm probably a bigger fan than those of you wearing the blinders. I grew up here, went to Michigan. Hopefully, by being vocal, we can end this stupid gimmick experiment before we end up losing a decade instead of just 3-4 years.
raddes
Fri, Oct 30, 2009 : 7:51 p.m.
Hey Macabre, So what do you mean when you say, "Real Michigan fans....won't accept this gimmickry in the guise of 'rebuilding'."? Or better yet, what exactly are YOU going to do about it? Boycott the team? Live in the past? No, I got it, keep getting on the AA site and whining about every artcle and comment posted. How did you even "read between the lines" that NebraskaWolverine78 was even talking about you? Oh yeah, because YOU'RE NOT a Wolverine fan. No, you just continue to get on here and spew your negativity. Disagree(?)---then why argue with a poitive post? And even if you claim you are a UM fan, you're tone evokes a whiny Suckeye fan!! Real UM fans support the improvement of this program and RR. By the way, here's some of your greatest hits, errr WWWWAAAAAAAAA from this past week!!!!!! "I hate what this coach has done to our beloved Wolverines." "It's just a gimmick, combining the spread concept with the zone run-oriented quarterback." "Why are we paying top dollar for half a coach?" "This egomaniac has no place wearing the maize and blue." "Martin's decision to hire RichRod was a disaster." Yeah, you're a college football team's DREAM FAN! I like this offense and I'm thrilled with RR. So get on board with the program and stay positive about where it's heading because you CAN'T do anything about it.
Fresh121
Fri, Oct 30, 2009 : 7:20 p.m.
Sunset you must of not seen the article about recruitin on mblog..that is a big reason for the D.... Always on the same gimmick comment how about you think of something more original for future post and stop beatin the dead horse with ur "gimmick" line.Look at the recruiting classes of WV in RR last few years to ours,blows us away. we all should thank Lc for really caring about the future of this programe why he let us slip other schools took full advantege of it.We just need 1 noel divine and things would be better.
Macabre Sunset
Fri, Oct 30, 2009 : 4:03 p.m.
Real Michigan fans know the difference between your and you're. Presumably, real Michigan fans have an education. Real Michigan fans are quite entitled to dislike Coach Gimmick and the No-Defense Bunch. Real Michigan fans remember that this is the best football program in the history of the world, and won't accept this gimmickry in the guise of "rebuilding."
michboy40
Fri, Oct 30, 2009 : 2:47 p.m.
I like Michigan tomorrow. When they run the ball well, they seem to get into a much better stride, and from what I have seen, Ill. run D is terrible. Of course ours is too, but our defense seems to rise up against the lesser opponents and get the stops when they need them. Michign 38, Ill. 24
NebraskaWolverine78
Fri, Oct 30, 2009 : 2:34 p.m.
Ya know I get on here every day to check out the articles and the comments people post. You can kinda tell the real Michigan fans from the I only like Michigan when they win fans. If your a real fan you are going to stick by them no matter what, winning or losing. Michigan will win tomorrow and they will go to a bowl game. They are a young team so you got to have patience. There only going to get bigger, better and with more experience they WILL be back on top. So for all of you real Michigan fans I say, GO BLUE! For all you posers, shut your mouth. Oh and that goes for all you RR haters too. Champions are not made over night. Just give him a chance and let him do his job.
Fresh121
Fri, Oct 30, 2009 : 1:48 p.m.
If we can run we win, Michigan needs to run more play-action passes not all the roll out passes we run alot suck them in with PA down the feild hire me RR i fix ur offense lol!! All in for Michigan!
Macabre Sunset
Fri, Oct 30, 2009 : 11:17 a.m.
I wish I had your optimism. Hopefully I'll be pleasantly surprised tomorrow. But I see a close loss and the end of Michigan's bowl hopes.