For Argument's Sake: Is Illinois ready to make a jump to the top of the Big Ten?
For each Big Ten preview, Michigan writers Dave Birkett and Michael Rothstein will jaw back-and-forth with words, parting shots and general opinions about why we selected each team to finish where we did.
Sometimes we'll agree. Other times, we won't.
Dave Birkett: We haven't had too many disagreements here at For Argument's Sake, but I think we're headed for one now, Mike. I know you like Illinois quite a bit, and while I'm not totally down on the Illini, I'm not exactly sold on them, either. Here's why: Ron Zook and Juice Williams. Zook can recruit, but I don't trust him as a coach. Juice is a pretty good athlete, but he doesn't do much for me as a quarterback. Combine the two and you're bound to lose at least one game you shouldn't every year (or three last year; Western Michigan, Minnesota and Northwestern). Illinois is scary. I've got them beating Penn State at home. But I'm just as confident they'll lose at Purdue or Indiana.
Michael Rothstein: I understand your fears when it comes to Illinois and I share your concerns with Ron Zook as a game day head coach (ask anyone in Florida or last year in Champaign). However, I really, really do like Illinois this year and here's why: Contract years. It's a pretty well-known phenomenon within pro sports. When a player is in the final year of their contracts, magically, some players play unbelievably well. With both Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn both eligible for the NFL Draft after this season, consider this a contract year for the two college stars. And expect them both to play well - Benn being the best receiver in the Big Ten and perhaps the country and Williams showing his ability as a dual-threat quarterback. Doug Pilcher happens to be a pretty good leader on defense, too. Illinois was a Rose Bowl team two years ago. Expect them to return to that type of form, however don't expect a BCS bowl. Just something close. About the only thing that can hold the Illini back is their schedule: non-conference games against Missouri, Cincinnati and Fresno State might make the toughest non-conference schedule in the league.
DB: I'll give them credit for that schedule. It's better than playing two MAC teams and an FCS school (are you listening, Bill Martin?). And your contract-year theory, maybe we should dispatch an investigative reporter down to Champaign to check it out. You remember John L. Smith's "where there's smoke, there's probably fire" comments. Here's the other thing that worries me about Illinois: those massive pro egos. Benn is the best receiver in the Big Ten. Juice is the face of Illinois football right now. So why did they have to go and rat out their boys for hitting the clubs? It's one thing to be a leader and tell your guys to get in line with the program. It's another to tattle on them to your coach and suggest extra sprints. That's a recipe for disaster when things start going south, in my opinion.
MR: That's kind of bad. Never saw that, although perhaps Benn and Juice missed the Carmelo Anthony video to Stop Snitchin' (that never gets old). I agree that it looks bad on the surface, but it shows accountability on two levels: 1) That Juice and Benn are taking Zook and football seriously and 2) They want to be leaders. The key to this season, though, is on defense. If Martez Wilson can finally show he was worth all of the hype as a high school recruit, Illinois can be special. Remember, he was one of the top defenders in the nation coming out of high school. Heck, the guy is a Butkus Award candidate despite making only 73 tackles as a sophomore. I'm expecting a big year out of him.
DB: If the Illini get anything out of their defense, they might live up to your expectations. The offense is going to be dynamic. Beyond Benn, Florida transfer Jarred Fayson and tight end Michael Hoomanwanui - say that three times fast - are threats in the passing game, and I think the running game will be better. Not Rashard Mendenhall good, but better. At the end of the day, I think Illinois wins seven or eight games. I'll give them the benefit and say 8-4 and a spot in the Champs Sports Bowl.
MR: 8-4? I'm surprised you went that high, Dave, especially since you've been somewhat waffling on the Illini in our conversations. I'm going to go one better. Illinois will go 9-3 this year, with losses to Ohio State and Penn State - back-to-back weeks playing the two is really, really tough - and that game at Big East favorite Cincinnati could be a late-season killer for a team and a conference that isn't used to playing after the Big Ten season. It'll be a nice New Year's Day bowl trip somewhere for Zook & Friends, but not enough for a BCS berth.
Dave Birkett and Michael Rothstein cover Michigan for annarbor.com. They can be reached at davidbirkett@annarbor.com and michaelrothstein@annarbor.com.
Comments
maizenbluenc
Thu, Aug 6, 2009 : 5:57 a.m.
We'll see on Illinois. With all the experience (remember the talent Zook "surprise" recruited a few years back are now Juniors), and with at least two horses to ride they should do better, and even contend. I believe they are at least 3rd (MSU lost thier one horse Ringer after all), and either Penn State or OSU could falter.
tater
Wed, Aug 5, 2009 : 7:28 p.m.
Zook is still the coach who lost five games a year at Florida.
stan
Wed, Aug 5, 2009 : 7:03 p.m.
I can't wait for the coverage on Sunday. I guess just seeing the rankings here kind of surprised me. As for Illinois, I think they may be overrated as well. The concern about Ron Zook's coaching ability is well placed. He had much better talent at Florida and yet consistently underachieved. Although Illinois has a nice level of talent, I can't be a believer until Zook proves that his reputation is unfair.
Dave Birkett
Wed, Aug 5, 2009 : 5:29 p.m.
Thanks for writing, Stan. I've got Michigan State rated a hair better than Michigan right now and agree that the Spartans being picked third is a bit too high for all that they need to replace. If that game was in Ann Arbor instead of East Lansing, I'd probably be picking Michigan to win. Our MSU preview should be up tomorrow, and we'll discuss Michigan in this format on Sunday. Hopefully we'll shed a little more light on it then.
stan
Wed, Aug 5, 2009 : 4:41 p.m.
I think you guys are underating Michigan and overrating Michigan State. Michigan State has not been rated but anything above 5 is a bit outrageous for a team that is replacing starters at both QB and RB. While Michigan will have a new QB (at least I hope so, I can't handle another Nick Sheridan snap), everyone else returns on offense. Michigan should finish fourth or fifth if one of the freshman QBs are adequate. If Tate is the real deal, Michigan can compete for the conference title.