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Posted on Sun, Aug 2, 2009 : 5:30 p.m.

For Argument's Sake: A little disagreement over Wisconsin

By Dave Birkett

For each Big Ten preview, Michigan writers Dave Birkett and Michael Rothstein will jaw back-and-forth with words, parting shots and general opinions about why we selected each team to finish where we did.

Sometimes we'll agree. Other times, we won't.

Michael Rothstein: I feel like wearing a bowler today. Or perhaps a fedora. That'd be more fitting when talking about Wisconsin, a team living in the past with its offense and perhaps its glory days, too. The Badgers are still stuck in the mid-1990s, back when every Big Ten team ran, ran, ran and passing was still considered sinful. Most of the Big Ten evolved. Wisconsin stayed put. When you've got Ron Dayne, you can do that. John Clay is a very good runner, perhaps all-Big Ten caliber - but I can't see the Badgers being any good this year. Not. At. All.

Dave Birkett: You and I are going to have our first disagreement, Mike. Wisconsin is my surprise team in the Big Ten this year. I'm not saying the Badgers will be great, but they have the type of schedule you can do some damage with. No Penn State or Illinois. Most of their toss-up games are at home (Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa). And Brett Bielema's feeling a little bit of fire to produce here in his fourth year. I'm worried about the quarterback situation no doubt, but John Clay's a beast. I've got him down for 1,200 yards (and not just because he's on my fantasy Big Ten team). I understand why you and others think Wisconsin is stuck in the 80s, but I see a program that's zigging when others zag. While everyone's running the spread, Wisconsin still has its pick of NFL-caliber offensive linemen and physical backs who put the hurt on people in November.

MR: See, I don't see Michigan State or Iowa being a toss-up game. I think it's pretty clear-cut those teams are better - even if they do play in Camp Randall (Bielema's self-proclaimed toughest place to play in the Big Ten). Could Michigan lose there? Absolutely. But I don't see the other two doing so. I agree with you on Clay. Love him. But when he's your only offense (Garrett Graham, the tight end, is damned good but 30 receptions isn't going to cut it), he's bound to break down. See Michigan State and Javon Ringer from last season. The non-conference isn't too bad, though. Hawaii and its ramblilng, suspended coach, shouldn't be too much of an end-of-season challenge and Bielema scheduled Wofford (Wofford?!?!?). They'll make a bowl game, but it won't be because they are any good. It'll be because they have a really easy schedule - although I like Northern Illinois to possibly pull the upset. Chandler Harnish is underrated as a quarterback and Jerry Kill might be the best coach no one has ever heard of. And, his last name is Kill.

DB: The only teams in the Big Ten I think are any good are Penn State and Ohio State. Wisconsin's in that next mediocre tier, along with six or seven other teams. The Badgers lost three times last year by a field goal or less and had Ohio State beat in Madison. They could have easily won 10 games, and if it weren't for the league's second-worst turnover margin they might have. The offense has to get better and more balanced, but if freshman Kraig Appleton is as good as advertised that won't be a problem. Throw in a solid kicking game and I think Wisconsin contends for a Jan. 1 bowl.

MR: Jan. 1? Jan. 1? (Putting on John McEnroe voice) You CANNOT be serious???? They'll contend for a Jan. 1 bowl - watching it with family members around the television. And you're relying on a freshman wide receiver here. That's great and all except when has Wisconsin ever been a big passing team? Yeah, that's right. Didn't think so. And OK, say Appleton is a difference maker as a freshman - who is going to throw him the ball? Senior Dustin Sherer threw for a whopping 1,389 yards last year. That's good enough for 96th in the country. Allen Evridge threw for another 949 yards but he's gone. Curt Phillips and Scott Tolzien could push him but the quarterback I really like is freshman Jon Budmayr. No matter who is playing, it won't be enough. Wisconsin makes a bowl -- barely. Bucky Badger settles for 6-6 and the other BB goes into 2010 needing a big year.

DB: I'm not relying on a freshman receiver, I'm just saying Appleton gives the Badgers someone you have to account for on the outside. And if Wisconsin's quarterback, whoever it is, throws for another 2,400 yards this season (more than Wake Forest's Riley Skinner or Alabama's John Parker Wilson threw for last year) the Badgers will be just fine. Laugh all you want, but 8-4 gets you to the Outback Bowl - it has three of the last four years, at least - and I don't think Wisconsin has a problem getting there this year.

Dave Birkett and Michael Rothstein cover University of Michigan sports for annarbor.com. They can be reached at davidbirkett@annarbor.com and michaelrothstein@annarbor.com.

Comments

tater

Sun, Aug 2, 2009 : 6:37 p.m.

If Forcier turns out to even be a competent QB, I don't see UM as a toss-up game for Wisky. Wisky is getting worse every year. They sorta remind me of what I think is going to happen at WVU, or what happened at Miami after Butch Davis left.