Will winter pack a wallop in Ann Arbor?
If you’re not a big fan of snow, you’re in luck. Forecasters are predicting a rather wimpy winter for the Ann Arbor area.
Oh, there’s likely to be a snow, but it’s probably going to arrive mostly in dribs and drabs rather than in a few big wallops. That’s the word from Tom Kines, a meteorologist with AccuWeather.com.
Kines said AccuWeather.com’s winter forecast, updated this week, predicts normal amounts of snow and normal temperatures in Ann Arbor this winter. He went so far as to call the forecast boring.
Cars negotiate an Ann Arbor street in snow in this file photo. AccuWeather predicts few major snowfalls for the Ann Arbor area this year.
On the other hand, that doesn’t mean we’re going to get by without using a shovel all winter. In an average winter, snowfall in Ann Arbor usually totals about 52 inches.
This year, most of that snow is expected to arrive via the Alberta clipper, a type of storm that moves down from Canada and generally carries little moisture with it, normally dumping about 1 to 3 inches, Kines said.
“That’s not to say that you can’t at some point get half a foot of snow,” Kines said. “That can certainly happen.” It’s just unlikely that there will be very many such storms, Kines said.
As for temperature, that’s expected to be in the normal range, too, Kines said. In Ann Arbor, the average high for December is 35 and the average low is 23, according to data from the Weather Channel. In January, the averages are 31 and 18. By February the average high is back to 35, while the average low is 27.
Some parts of the country can expect more extreme weather, Kines said. AccuWeather is predicting some major storms for the East Coast and above average snowfall.
Here's hoping this year's forecast is more accurate than last year's, when AccuWeather predicted bitter cold, lots of snow and a late spring for southeast Michigan. After Ann Arbor enjoyed the fifth-warmest winter on record last year, AccuWeather said a long-range forecast can never be completely reliable.
“You can never predict what your accuracy is going to be," meteorologist Jack Boston said at the time. "It’s your best estimate of what you think will happen.”
Cindy Heflin is associate news director at AnnArbor.com. Contact her at 734-623-2572 or cindyheflin@annarbor.com or follow her on Twitter.
Comments
Rork Kuick
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 5:18 p.m.
I predict the days will get shorter, but then longer again. I predict crayfish will swim backwards, and crabs walk sideways. I predict the spring will not be as good as I'd wish it to be for our farmers.
javajolt1
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 1:55 p.m.
How about mastering the 2-day forecast first?
1bit
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 11:15 a.m.
It's clear that most on here realize the absurdity of this kind of "prediction". Even with a known weather pattern, for example a hurricane, it's direction is given as a probability function. With unknown future weather patterns, the error bars increase. Any "prediction" is worthless without knowing the expected probability of the occurrence. More simply, what are the odds that it will be a severe winter, normal winter or mild winter? All are possible and Accuweather seems to believe the middle is most likely, but by how much?
sandalwood
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 8:11 a.m.
I'm saying we will get some snow this winter, and get some nice day's too!!! That's my prediction!
Michael Armitage
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 3:44 a.m.
And this is a reliable source? Anyone remember their prediction for last Winter, which ended up being the fifth warmest on record? Well, here is a refresher: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-winter-20112012/55890
P. J. Murphy
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 1:53 p.m.
Great link, thanks. Gave me a chuckle. Serious meteorologists are properly vague and tentative in long range predictions. There are simply too many variables to generate a specific prediction. But Accuweather and The Weather Channel are only part meteorology the rest is commercial journalism.
JRW
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 12:54 a.m.
I personally don't mind snow. What I do mind is the lack of plowing in the city and county. If it only snows 1-3" at a pop, then A2 won't even have to take out the antiquated plows, since they don't plow unless 4 or more inches fall. Good luck!
Epengar
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 9:53 p.m.
Professional meteorologists have methods of assessing the past accuracy of their forecasts, they call it "forecast skill." It would be reasonable to ask AccuWeather what their forecast skill is for longterm weather outlooks.
Ann English
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 6:43 p.m.
The meteorologists are always right when forecasting blizzards around here. I'd rather the temperatures stay too cold for sleet and freezing rain. Hope we don't have a February like 2011's; that was the snowiest month of the 2010-2011 winter. We got a tornado out of our early spring in one area, and flooding in other areas. Proposal 3 would raise prices on our utility rates, for the same reason CAFE standards raise prices on cars; government regulations ordering green energy to be used [for such-and-such a percentage of our heating and electricity, by 2020 (or put in your year of choice)] does NOT guarantee that the private sector can and will be able to comply. Technological advances do NOT come from government orders for it to advance; free enterprise encourages technological advances, in better ways, in its own time.
sellers
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 10:13 p.m.
The internet was formed from DARPA.
lorayn
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 4:41 p.m.
last year around this time they said it would be bad -- and look what happened -- nothing much. I think it's pure speculation at this point.
Top Cat
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 4:30 p.m.
Weather forecasting reminds me of a Casey Stengel quote, "I never make predictions, especially about the future."
javajolt1
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 1:57 p.m.
Those baseball guys are prophets in their own simple way.
Tom Todd
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 3:09 p.m.
has not Rained since March should not snow till February.
HONDO
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 2:24 p.m.
AccuWeather... please they havent gotten a 5 day forecast right yet!! Its funny how the meteorologist are suprised by this weekends weather. But yet they can predict 2 months ahead.
Major
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 2:22 p.m.
Considering the accuracy of weather reporting even a few days out, I don't put much trust into any long range forecast. For the most part they have never been correct. As for "climate change" no question about it, is it man made? Highly doubtful. We give ourselves too much credit in that regard. I cut a lot of standing timber and like to look at/count the tree rings. They leave a record, they tell a story. They give a good read on what's gone on in the recent past..100-200 years. I see sections of great drought, and conversely good growing years. All plain to see in the compact rings resembling the tight grooves on a vinyl record (drought/ heat/cloudy/ cold), right next to rings a quarter inch wide (good/normal weather). All of which are random and alternating throughout the centuries. I'll stick to the best forecast there is, look out the window.
shepard145
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 1:51 p.m.
The hot summer will be balanced by a cold winter. Ann Arbor and Washtenaw County will once again fail to maintain our roads and residents will experience hundreds of needless weather related accidents. The local politicians responsible for road maintenance will continue to complain about texting while driving, cross walks, bike lanes and parking down town, while crash after crash, they continue to ignore their failure to maintain our roads. AA dot com should do a series that puts names and faces with those responsible for maintaining our roads in the winter. If they manage to do a good job for the first time in decades, that should also be recognized.
sellers
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 10:12 p.m.
Last summer was a hot summer too..... it all comes down to oceanic patterns - if the atlantic current slow, colder air will spill into the east coast, leaving the midwest with an option to obtain warm air from the gulf versus cold air from the Canadian shield.
JRW
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 12:58 a.m.
I would not count on the road crews doing a good job in the winter clearing streets and roads. It's amateur hour here in A2, with crews that don't even START plowing until 4" of snow falls. How ridiculous is that? And the county has so few trucks, they usually don't even start salting or plowing until later in the day, hoping it will melt. Crews show up at 6 am, and then decide to start, maybe. I've got news for them. People are already commuting by 6 am. How about starting at 4 am? Not a chance. What a bunch of amateurs.
WalkingJoe
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 7:11 p.m.
Seems to me that there were plenty of needless accidents during our extremely hot dry summer. Was that the road crews fault too? What were they supposed to do, put shades up along the highways to keep the sun out of drivers eyes? You know, it has been my observation that during inclement weather people just don't slow down and realize that the roads are slippery. But of course those same people will jump all over my comment tell me how wrong I am.
Red Floyd
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 1:41 p.m.
So this means we're actually going to have a brutal winter. Good to know...
Chimay
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 6:56 p.m.
My instincts are saying the same thing. The squirrels and birds are a bit heftier this year, and started packing it on a little earlier. At least that is how it seemed. I hope we do a couple good snowstorms. I missed them last year.
jns131
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 4:59 p.m.
I was thinking the same thing.
sellers
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 1:30 p.m.
I'd rather forecasters share what oceanic patterns are occurring and what they suspect it may cause versus trying to predict. Explain the current conditions and what ways they may affect areas in the future, versus just sharing what they guess is going to happen. I'd rather see options versus just one prediction (which can be completely wrong).
Lou Perry
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 12:38 p.m.
Forecast for last winter was to be one of the worst for freezing temperatures and a lot of snow. Just saying…
djacks24
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 1:53 a.m.
Yeah. I hope this one is actually accurate. As a matter of fact, I don't think I've sen one that has been correct yet.
sellers
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 1:31 p.m.
So did the article. "Here's hoping this year's forecast is more accurate than last year's, when AccuWeather predicted bitter cold, lots of snow and a late spring for southeast Michigan. After Ann Arbor enjoyed the fifth-warmest winter on record last year, AccuWeather said a long-range forecast can never be completely reliable."
LarryJ
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 12:11 p.m.
How can a writer write a story like this without mention of climate change? With the virtual absence of a winter last year, followed by an unusually hot summer, I'm concerned that climate change is moving into an accelerated phase. This weather projection only heightens that concern. We are LONG overdue to start doing some things about it. Voting for Prop. 3 is a start.
MSU0284
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 1:21 p.m.
It's "climate shift". We might have had a tame winter, but countries in the middle east had their coldest winters ever last year and had to buy heaters and winter coats for the first time.
djacks24
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 1:51 a.m.
We've only been recording weather patterns since 1880 but the planet has had weather patterns for billions of years. Last summer was the second warmest since the 1930's and an article about a "normal" winter has the libs claim the sky is falling. Unbelievable!
Stephen Landes
Sun, Oct 7, 2012 : 12:55 a.m.
Volunteering to pay 25% more for electricity is not going to help the climate, environment, polar bears, or anything else. If anything it will simply line the pockets of alternative energy hucksters who, like Solyndra, will take your money and run -- leaving you nothing but poorer.
Unusual Suspect
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 10:28 p.m.
"How can a writer write a story like this without mention of climate change?" Because this isn't the fiction section.
mike gatti
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 7:49 p.m.
No such thing as change.
jns131
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 4:58 p.m.
This is not climate change. This is about a millions years worth of climate rotation and yes, the earth is changing but hopefully in a better way.
Chris
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 4:55 p.m.
This is weather, not climate. Big difference. One storm or one season does not make a climate.
WalkingJoe
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 1:36 p.m.
LaryJ, your concern is noted but why does every weather story have to mention "Climate Change"? Climate Change may be coming but I think this article was meant to be a lighthearted observation. If you are really that concerned about Climate Change I suggest writing a opinion piece and have annarbor.com publish that.
FredMax
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 1:28 p.m.
Is this missive representative of what passes for scientific thinking these days?
jcj
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 1:16 p.m.
Normal amount certainly does not support a climate change theory!
TommyJ
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 1:05 p.m.
No such thing as 'climate change'
antikvetch
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 12:54 p.m.
"predicts normal amounts of snow and normal temperatures in Ann Arbor this winter" That's the story.
George K
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 10:43 a.m.
I could be wrong, but personally I find it funny that they would even try to predict weather that far out. To make such bold predictions as calling the forecast boring, like you know anything about what the weather will do 3 months from now! I like that they pointed out how the last winter's prediction was realized. Gave me a good laugh this morning :)
WalkingJoe
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 1:28 p.m.
Have to agree George K. Aren't these the same people who predict the daily and next day forecasts and half the time those are wrong. The only thing predictable about the weather is it's unpredictable at times.
David
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 : 10:13 a.m.
Farmer's Almanac...