Updated forecast: Up to 8 inches of snow headed for Ann Arbor
A motorist battles blowing and drifting snow in Amarillo, Texas, Monday. The same storm system which brought blizzard conditions to the Texas Panhandle and Plains states Monday could dump 6 inches or more of snow on the Ann Arbor area.
AP photo
What could be one of the biggest snowstorms of the season will start off Tuesday afternoon with a messy mix of snow and rain before eventually dumping up to 8 inches of snow on the Ann Arbor area, the National Weather Service says.
Most of that will come Tuesday afternoon and evening, said Matt Mosteiko, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in White Lake Township, which does forecasting for all of southeast Michigan.
The storm, which brought blizzard conditions to the Texas Panhandle and parts of Oklahoma and Kansas Monday, will move in to the Ann Arbor area around noon or 1 p.m. Tuesday with a mixture of snow, rain and possibly freezing rain before switching over to all snow around 4 p.m. That’s when the snow will begin accumulating at the rate of about an inch an hour between 4 and 7 p.m., Mosteiko said. Blustery conditions also are expected, with winds gusting to about 30 mph.
Another 2 inches is expected to fall before midnight and then another inch between midnight and 7 a.m.
Wednesday will bring intermittent snow showers and an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow. It will be mostly cloudy with a high around 34 degrees.Whether we get all of that snow will greatly depend on the temperature, Mosteiko said. Tuesday afternoon temperatures should be around freezing, he said, but if the temperature is warmer than that and stays above freezing for several hours, then we’ll get less snow accumulation and more rain.
Forecasters are watching this storm system as it moves across the country. Blizzard warnings were posted for the Texas Panhandle and parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. Forecasters were expecting up to 18 inches of snow in some areas. Farther north, winter storm warnings have been issued for parts of Kansas, Missouri and Illinois.
As the storm moves closer to Michigan, forecasters will decide, depending on the storm track and expected air temperatures, whether to change the current winter storm watch into a winter storm warning or winter weather advisory, Mosteiko said.
The biggest 24-hour snow accumulation so far this winter was 6.9 inches that fell on Dec. 26 and 27, according to records kept by Dennis Kahlbaum, University of Michigan Weather observer.
The snow from this storm is expected to be wet, heavy and hard to shovel, Mosteiko said. Some melting may occur Thursday when a high of 35 degrees is expected. There’s also a 30 percent chance of snow showers Thursday.
Colder temperatures are expected later in the week, with a high around 31 Friday and highs in the upper 20s for the weekend.
For updated forecasts and weather conditions anytime, check AnnArbor.com's weather page.
Cindy Heflin is associate news director at AnnArbor.com. Contact her at cindyheflin@annarbor.com or 734-623-2572 or follow her on Twitter.
Comments
G-Man
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 2:26 p.m.
Oooh, Better stay home and pull the blinds
dexterreader
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 1:59 p.m.
Or snowpocalypse. Ahhhh spring ..... where art thou??
applehazar
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 12:02 p.m.
Here comes snowmageddon! Global cooling is now the word of the day!
LXIX
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 11:10 a.m.
Pesky wittle gwoundhog. Seriously, this one could put us back up into the "normal" precipitation range for the year. Water is the new world order gold.
grimmk
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 10:13 a.m.
I really hope it isn't so bad, I need the furnace tech guy to come out then and fix mine! BURRR! It can storm all it wants after 5pm. Think we can deal, Mother Nature?
Tru2Blu76
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 8:07 a.m.
2:40 AM Tues: the weather map shows that the bulk of this weather system is originating from the Gulf, which even during winter months generally produces warmer temps. Also, the farther north the system gets, the less moisture it's likely to contain. A high of 34º is forecast. That implies that, with plowing and salting, even a 6" accumulation will soon be gone. Maybe better, the forecast for Tues. night calls for 32º and Wednesday's high is forecast to be 37º. Unless there's a sudden intensification and temperature drop, it looks like the prospect for a Doomsday Snow is small. At most I would expect a Wet Annoyance Day event, enhanced by the usual (annoying) media hype.
Krupper1
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 4:24 a.m.
No matter what, it's Bush's fault
applehazar
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 12:09 p.m.
Now thats funny!
Nicholas Urfe
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 4:23 a.m.
Oh the humanity!
JRW
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 3:24 a.m.
Forecast from wunderground.com Monday night: "Tuesday Night Overcast with snow. Fog overnight. Low of 32F with a windchill as low as 21F. Breezy. Winds from the East at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90% with accumulations up to 5 in. possible."
racerx
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 2:39 a.m.
So. We know when this snow event will occur. We also know the expected amount. Now. What will the city's road crews do? Wait until it all falls before treating and plowing the streets as they always do? Come up with some lame excuse why the roads weren't cleared, treated or attended to? Wait for it.....
grimmk
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 10:16 a.m.
What do you expect them to do? They have to wait until AFTER it starts! They can't plow NOTHING. Salt works for ICE. They can't be everywhere at the same time. They don't just plow once and call it done. They plow the same stretch of road multiple times! Did you not even bother to read that ride-along article? If you you think you can do it it better, get a few tons of salt, put a snow plow on the front of your BMW and get to work.
JRW
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 3:22 a.m.
Exactly, racerx
Ross
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 3:08 a.m.
I dunno, if you plow before it even starts snowing, my guess is that the roads will be pretty darn clear at that time. Then also if you just wait for it all to melt, and plow again. 100% effective!
Poorman
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 2:48 a.m.
It would be easier to plow before the snow falls but not as effective.
music to my ear
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 2:30 a.m.
"oh the weather outside is frightful ,and my dear it so delightful and since well all got some where to go you commentators finish the rest.
justcurious
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 2:14 a.m.
I'm thinking 6 inches.
Poorman
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 2:10 a.m.
The start of the mini-ice age? http://weeklyworldnews.com/headlines/43321/scientists-predict-coming-ice-age/
DLC61
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 1:48 a.m.
Sam: some robins never fly south.
uabchris
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 1:24 a.m.
Bring it!
David Cahill
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 1:16 a.m.
Weather.com is wimping out. Its hourly forecast now says rain/snow may start around 3:00 p.m., but the probabilities are dropping.
genetracy
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 12:58 a.m.
We need to open dialogue on climate change.
PWJT8D
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 12:17 a.m.
Dairy Queen opens on Friday!
jns131
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 6:16 p.m.
poorman? I love your candor. Lets all get a blizzard in a blizzard.
mady
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 2:20 p.m.
YEAH! Blueberry Sundae for me!
music to my ear
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 2:32 a.m.
I m gonna get me a chili dog,dog.
Poorman
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 2:13 a.m.
I think we should all go and order blizzards in the snow.
LA
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 1:54 a.m.
why are people voting down Dairy Queen?
huh7891
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 1:05 a.m.
A &W in Dexter opens too on Friday!
JW
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 1 a.m.
Dairy Queen on Packard is already open!
Hesh Breakstone
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 11:49 p.m.
This post is partly directed at the A2.com staff. First thanks for all that you do - you guys are great and I know some of you too having frequented your lobby for coffee most of last year in the AM. My request to you is to please don't tase me bro/sisters or more specifically please don't be so fast to delete comments.... Although I rarely get deleted you got me too last week when I was on-topic and very much in line with the TOS (terms of service). Many of us make comments often with an eye on also perhaps, just perhaps being funny too. But my co-workers and I have noticed that you often are very quick to delete comments. Please try to do better AND also understand in advance that although this forum is a welcome thing some of us are actually customers of A2.com be it physical newspapers or advertising dollars. It's just kind of hard to come to terms with being deleted for no good reason and then spending money with ya too.... Thanks. Now for my weather related comment.... As for me I'm going to do what I always do when bad weather happens, sequesters...., unemployment rises, taxes rise, the sky falls like the tears on Boehner's face - I simply blame the republicans.... :) So when your kids has to stay home or you can't get to work or the power goes out at home because of the upcoming storm rest assured that some of us will be blaming the republicans.... :)
Hesh Breakstone
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 12:30 p.m.
Oh I don't know... my own view is that A2.com does an excellent job of reporting the news and if rolls were reversed and some of us had the editorial levers I doubt that we could do any better. That was one of my two points with the other being please don't be so very delete happy - thicken up! Jns this is exactly what I mean; I appreciate your humor even blaming the dems and had expected at least someone to do so after my blaming of the republicans. Good going! Funny thing the dems blame the republicans, the republicans blame the dems, and everybody hates the tea party.... Kind of reminds me of Tom Lehrer with occasional pieces of skin... Anyway bring on that snow - we can take it!
Tru2Blu76
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 8:16 a.m.
Thanking A2dotcom for "all they do"?? What, besides providing a place to drink coffee and a WiFi hotspot, do they do?? They certainly don't provide quality journalism. Starbucks, or Cafe Royale, my man. ;)
jns131
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 1:23 a.m.
Since everyone is pointing fingers at everyone else and not blaming the democrats? I am going with blame the democrats since the republicans are blameless? Heck even nobama is pointing fingers.
conundrummy
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 10:28 p.m.
Meh..
Goober
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 9:56 p.m.
Oh my! It is still winter and we live in a northern climate. And.....it's going to snow. Go figure!
Goober
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 10:38 a.m.
Can't face reality - eh jonnya2?
JRW
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 3:19 a.m.
Why on earth would 5 people vote down this comment? Unbelievable.
tim
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 9:35 p.m.
I vote we get no snow.. Yah hear that God?
jns131
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 1:21 a.m.
He is in Maryland with Ms Green predicting that AAPS will stay open while every other district in the state is closed. Hear that AAPS?
PittsfieldTwp
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 9:23 p.m.
The National Weather Service usually always predicts more than the other services. I think its mostly because they are chartered to be our warning system. I prefer to view the Accuweather prediction since their forecast is usually more conservative and quite often more accuarate. That being said, we are in a 3-6 inch range according to them, and when you look at their map, we are at the bottom of the 3-6 band so, 3 inches is my guess according to them.
johnnya2
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 5:50 a.m.
@Ben, The right wing wants nothing to do with facts and statistics that Nate Silver does, They jump on anything that is not 00% accurate as a failing of the system rather than understanding probabilities and math. If there is a 51% chance of getting the snow, it seems to me I'd rather have them tell me it will be more than to say it looks like an inch and we get 8. Of course I would bet most of the commenters have no degree or experience in meterology or statistics.
Ben Freed
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 9:42 p.m.
I recommend reading Nate Silvers "The Signal and the Noise" to learn more about weather prediction and who is more accurate. Non-governmental forecasting services actually tend to have more of a "wet bias" than government sources that tend to do their best to portray the weather as accurately as possible. We have to keep in mind though that all predictions can only give us probabilities of events, not certainties.
JRW
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 9:38 p.m.
Uh oh. Let's hope it's not 3", they won't plow until it's 4"......... How does this policy work if there are two consecutive snowfall, at 3" each? Do they not plow at all since each snowfall was 3"? That would be my guess judging from the last 30 years of so-called snow removal in A2.
sheeple
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 9:12 p.m.
The radio news this afternoon offered their customary doom-filled storm forecast, including a remote update from some guy who sounded like he was on something. Their assessment is that everything that has ever existed, or ever will exist, will be obliterated.
hmsp
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 9:04 p.m.
@ JRW, re: "... they might just wait until it all melts!" That's my philosophy –– God shovels MY sidewalk!
JRW
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 8:57 p.m.
So, let's see. Plenty of warning, plenty of time to plan for crews to plow, and yet, we probably won't see much plowing until Wed. And then, they might just wait until it all melts! I can tell you first hand that last Friday in the late afternoon, after the snowfall was long over for many hours, the primary city streets were full of snow and looked as if NOTHING had been done to clear the snow. Oh, that's right! They don't even consider taking out the plows unless it snows 4"!! What a great policy! I've mentioned this to friends who live in other snowy cities in other states, and they burst out laughing. Snow removal in A2 is pathetic.
amlive
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 9:12 p.m.
Hmmm. I spent most of the day Friday driving between appointments throughout the city, and I don't think I saw a single major road that hadn't been plowed. I actually thought they were doing just fine. Maybe they just don't like the folks on your side of town.
Sam S Smith
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 8:56 p.m.
I saw two robins today and heard of other robin reports. I hope and pray they can weather this storm!
mady
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 2:16 p.m.
Sam, me too. i saw my first mourning dove a few days ago, one of my favorites. God bless and protect them all!
justcurious
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 2:13 a.m.
Robins often overwinter in swamps. A better indication of coming spring would be turkey vultures. I have been seeing them for a couple of weeks now.
Veracity
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 1:27 a.m.
I have been feeding birds for years but will have to make sure that the dishes remain visible if we get continual snow.
jns131
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 1:19 a.m.
I actually heard racoons chirping this afternoon. Boy are they in for a surprise when the snow hits.
jcj
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 12:03 a.m.
djacks24 "I seen about a dozen or so Friday evening leaving work." Where were they working?
Elaine F. Owsley
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 10:38 p.m.
His eye is on the sparrow, so you know He watches out for robins, too.
Sam S Smith
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 10:22 p.m.
Good to know! Thank you!
Epengar
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 10:21 p.m.
There are small flocks of robins that spend the winter here, and have done since at least the late 80's. They're often down along the river, and some are often seen at the Botanic Gardens.
djacks24
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 9:41 p.m.
It seems the last few years they've been around most of the Winter. I think this year has really been the first Winter in the last few I haven't seen them around for a while. I seen about a dozen or so Friday evening leaving work. I think it's because the snow we had that day kept them in the trees since they couldn't forage for food on the ground like they normally do.
amlive
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 9:09 p.m.
Since I moved south to Ann Arbor in 2000, I don't think I've seen a winter without robins here all through the season. Their numbers may be fewer, but if you look around enough there always seem to be pockets here and there that never leave (or make this good enough for their southern stop).
Olive
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 8:46 p.m.
The sky is falling!!
Veracity
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 1:24 a.m.
Quite literally, I would say!
Dr. Vag
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 8:32 p.m.
What now CASH??
Dave Bass
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 8:24 p.m.
Just have to wait longer before I can mow.
mr54
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 8:22 p.m.
Up to 8 inches but more likely 1-2 if we don't get 4-6!
Ghost of Tom Joad
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 8:32 p.m.
so you're saying that all things are possible?
Top Cat
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 8:21 p.m.
I liked the old days when we could always blame these large snow storms on Canada.
Chimay
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 10:53 p.m.
Ha! I grew up on the East Coast, below the Mason-Dixon line (I escaped unscathed!), and you just reminded me that I used to tell those that didn't know and would ask that hurricanes started as Arctic depressions and moved south. Remarkably, no one ever challenged me on that one.
Ann English
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 10:46 p.m.
When the temperatures drop into the single digits, we still call it "Arctic Air" that normally stays north of the US-Canada border.
hail2thevict0r
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 8:01 p.m.
So we're going to get like 2 inches of snow?
PittsfieldTwp
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 9:24 p.m.
Three according to Accuweather, and more as you move north of here.
mr54
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 8:24 p.m.
If that!
Joslyn at the U
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 7:57 p.m.
Crap :(
MRunner73
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 7:38 p.m.
If this were an all snow event, the snow to rain ratio would be 6 to 1. This compared to 10 to 1 late last week and even 20 to 1 when it was colder. So 1 inch of rain would convert to 6 inches of heavy, wet snow. The middle part of the artcile indicates the National Weather Service forecaster was still uncertain on the all snow event of having rain mixing in.
Ross
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 7:55 p.m.
Maybe 8 to 1. 6 to 1 is a little extreme. Going to be some heavy slop, that's for sure though.
John Pinner
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 7:21 p.m.
get ready the 4 hills sledding in Depot Town..yee hawwwwwwwwwww
Phew!
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 8:17 p.m.
"4 hills sledding in Depot Town"? Is that where "No Sleding" is posted? Watch out for the river!!
D
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 6:57 p.m.
Bust out the 4WD.
hockeymom
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 12:01 p.m.
Have fun driving your Obama bumper sticker adorned Prius', Progressives!
Skyjockey43
Tue, Feb 26, 2013 : 2:34 a.m.
Oddly enough, most of the vehicles I see in the ditch along I-94 during heavy snow falls are four wheel drives.
D
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 8:53 p.m.
Mr. Tim Horton, the lower the MPGs the better. Poppin a 40oz does sound pretty good too though. M-14 is always entertaining with all the folks who don't know how to drive and tend to spin out on a straight road...
brian123
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 8:32 p.m.
Tim Hornton - - while i'm definitely one of "those people" you mention...your post still made me chuckle :)
boo
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 7:34 p.m.
how about we just pop open a 40
Barb
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 7:24 p.m.
Not the WD40?
Tim Hornton
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 7:19 p.m.
This is Ann Arbor Mr. D, enlightened progressives drive small Honda's with Coexist and Obama bumper sticker. 4WD kills polar bears and stuff.
dancinginmysoul
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 7:16 p.m.
More like stay home and watch movies.
GoNavy
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 7:05 p.m.
More like bust out the snow tires.
dancinginmysoul
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 6:49 p.m.
Y U No Cooperate winter?
mady
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 : 6:32 p.m.
Bring it on!