Meteorologist: December rainfall totals 'not that significant' despite drenching
This week's rain in Ann Arbor meant the area topped 50 inches of rainfall for 2011 - yet despite more scattered showers in the forecast for overnight, meteorologist Dave Kook of the National Weather Service said it’s not uncommon to have a weather pattern like this in December.
A woman takes cover from the rain under an umbrella. National Weather Service meteorologist Dave Kook said seeing rain and not snow is not uncommon for December.
Friday's rainfall totaled 0.04 inches from 7 a.m. to 1 p.m. at the Detroit Metro Airport. Kook said the area likely can anticipate another 0.2 inches to fall by Saturday morning.
Kook said these totals are minor and a normal day’s worth of precipitation is about an inch. Summer thunderstorms can generate an inch of rainfall in a matter of hours, he said, adding rain Friday and Saturday will be absorbed into the ground quickly and should not cause slippery roadways or flooding.
One to two inches of snow is expected to accumulate over Sunday and Monday, according to the National Weather Service. Kook said the snow likely will not stick, as temperatures are forecasted to remain around 30 degrees.
Kook added people have a misconception about snow in December, largely due to the desire for a white Christmas. But snow is most common in January and February, he said.
The average value for rainfall in December at Detroit Metro is 2.31 inches. Measurements as of 1 p.m. today showed 2.45 inches. Detroit Metro also typically sees 8.9 inches of snowfall, while totals today showed 5.7 inches for December.
“So the numbers for the month are not really that significant,” Kook said. “January and February are the coldest months of the year. So once we hit January-February, we should see things pick up snowfall-wise.”
U-M weather observer Dennis Kahlbaum said the Climate Predication Center has forecasted precipitation totals in January through March will be below normal as well.
He said the warm weather can be attributed to confluence of weather patterns in the North Pacific and Atlantic oceans.
Kook added people should not be concerned about the wet 2011 southeastern Michigan saw.
“If we saw this five-six years in a row, then maybe we could start to worry about climate change,” he said. “But weather is what’s happening now; climate is what’s happened in the last 40, 50, 60 years. Weather can change in an instant, whereas climate change is a very gradual, slow process.”
Staff reporter Danielle Arndt covers K-12 education for AnnArbor.com. Follow her on Twitter @DanielleArndt or email her at daniellearndt@annarbor.com.
Comments
f4phantomII
Sat, Dec 31, 2011 : 5:39 p.m.
"Snowfall-wise"? Blech.
jcj
Sat, Dec 31, 2011 : 3:40 p.m.
Mr Kook apparently NEVER gets off his computer chair to venture into the fields or see the streams over running their banks! The difference is we set a RECORD for the wettest year! The ground is saturated and that inch of rain in the summer quickly runs into the drain or is soaked into the ground. And the sun dries it up. This time of year it gradually makes the soil more saturated in part because we DON'T get the warm sun to dry things out. "So the numbers for the month are not really that significant," Kook said. "January and February are the coldest months of the year. So once we hit January-February, we should see things pick up snowfall-wise." Anyone that has lived in Michigan for more than one winter could have reached that conclusion without a degree in meteorology!
grimmk
Sat, Dec 31, 2011 : 10:26 a.m.
This is all very confusing and misleading. Just because it doesn't snow in December doesn't mean it can't nor has it in the past. I think all the season have changed and lept forward a whole month. Winter now starts in January and goes until May. Or it seems like it has in the past few years. Gradual change. And when winter does hit we get the sub zero two feet of snow storm. But what does it matter? We just shrug it off and say, "It's Michigan!"
MattY
Sat, Dec 31, 2011 : 3:44 a.m.
"Friday, the University of Michigan measured 50.62 inches of rain since January." I suspect it was 50.62 inches of *precipitation*...if snow is being counted, then it isn't "rain." "U-M weather observer Dennis Kahlbaum said the Climate Predication Center has forecasted precipitation totals in January through March will be below normal as well." BELOW normal...are you sure? The map below from the Climate Prediction Center clearly shows ABOVE normal precipitation in the forecast for January - March: <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif" rel='nofollow'>http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif</a>
Atlas Shrugged
Sat, Dec 31, 2011 : 3:33 a.m.
I'm shaking and quaking. Back in the day I used to get freaked out watching Alastair Sim play Scrooge in the old 1951 film from Dickens' A Christmas Carrol, and had bad dreams all night for a month. Now I'm gonna start thinking Al Gore and global warming for my nightmares. More nighttime disbelief. Won't sell my snow thrower, yet, however. Oh, Tipper, oh, Tipper, where are you now?
81wolverine
Fri, Dec 30, 2011 : 11:43 p.m.
Almost 51 inches of rainfall is pretty amazing for this area. That would put us in the range of historic average numbers for the Pacific Northwest coastline. It will be interesting to see if the same trend occurs next year.
Bob Heinold
Fri, Dec 30, 2011 : 10:33 p.m.
Can't something be done about writing more lively captions for photos, especially a fairly routine but well done one like this one? This caption is in the mode of a Disney film: "Here's the momma bear leading her two cubs out of the den."
nickcarraweigh
Fri, Dec 30, 2011 : 9:44 p.m.
Well, in the second paragraph the story says it was the wettest year ever in Ann Arbor. When was the record broken? August? Two weeks ago? This morning? What used to be the record? When did that record happen? Is this part of a recent trend locally or was it a freak? I love playing "Find The Lead," and I get lots of practice time at annarbor.com
OLDTIMER3
Sat, Dec 31, 2011 : 1:30 p.m.
The first paragraph says the record was broke yesterday at 1:00pm with 50.62 inches since January of 2011. I think the old record was set in 1890, not sure though.
jns131
Fri, Dec 30, 2011 : 8:15 p.m.
That is what they said last year. Below normal. We really didn't have a below normal last year. 2 years ago? O yeah. I remember those negative 30's. As for the wettest? Every time I turn on the television to see the weather? The first words out of their mouths is wettest on record. Sometimes I wonder if I moved to Great Britain. Just glad to see the snow still hitting everyone else.