University of Michigan officials worry exodus could impact in-state applicant pool
But they stop short of saying whether mix of in-state and out-of-state undergraduates might change
Demographic data indicates families with children are leaving the state in search of better opportunities, and that could carry implications for the University of Michigan's in-state applicant pool, officials said.
The Diag and Hatcher Graduate Library, on University of Michigan's campus.
Angela Cesere | AnnArbor.com
"We're watching that carefully," said Phil Hanlon, the vice provost for academic and budgetary affairs. "We have demographic projections that we are watching, and they do call for a fairly significant decrease in high school graduates within the next decade within the state of Michigan.
Michigan's population fell below 10 million for the first time since 2001, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released in December. The estimate found the state lost 32,759 people between July 1, 2008, and July 1, 2009.
It's the fourth consecutive annual loss for the state - more than 500,000 residents have left since 2001.
"We're concerned about it. It means we will certainly be working really hard to generate as many suitable applications from within the state as possible," said Hanlon, who was named provost and executive vice president for academic affairs Tuesday.
Despite the loss of population, U-M's applicant pool has broken records in the last three admissions cycle. And U-M has applied to join the Common Application in the next admissions cycle, a service used by 400 schools around the country that lets applicants apply to multiple schools at once.
The mix of in-state and out-of-state undergraduates has remained the same at U-M for more than a decade. Thirty-five percent of U-M's undergraduate students are from out of state. Freshmen and sophomore students from out-of-state pay $34,937 in tuition and fees per year, compared to $11,659 for an in-state undergraduate.
Asked if the ratio of in-state and out-of-state students would change in coming years, U-M Provost Teresa Sullivan said, "That's hard to tell at this point."
"What I'm concerned about is the demographic situation in the state," Sullivan said. "We know we've had a loss of population including the loss of young families, and the number of 18-year-olds available to recruit to college is dropping. How far has that dropped? We're not going to know until we take the U.S. Census next April."
Kurt Metzger analyzed the 2009 estimates as director of the Detroit Area Community Information System.
"The population continues to leave the state at unprecedented numbers and the loss of the younger population, coupled with demographic shifts in childbearing, has resulted in the lowest number of births since World War II," Metzger told the Associated Press.
University officials said applicant quality, not tuition revenue, drives the mix of in-state and out-of-state students.
"Right now we prefer to look at every student on their merits and try to have an out-of-state student body that matches in quality the in-state student body," Sullivan said.
Echoing Sullivan, Hanlon said he didn't want to answer a hypothetical question about the potential to change this mix in light of expected future decreases in state funding or a population decrease.
"Quality is really the driver here," he said. "And it's more powerful than financial consideration."
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Juliana Keeping covers higher education for AnnArbor.com. Reach her at julianakeeping@annarbor.com or 734-623-2528. Follow Juliana Keeping on Twitter
Comments
jaxie
Wed, Jan 27, 2010 : 10:21 p.m.
There are two distinct subgroups of students that can be addressed separately: (1) math-engineering-science majors and (2) other majors. I'll confine my comments to the first. Regardless of what state students come from, poor preparation in math and the sciences throughout the US educational community limits the supply of students who are well prepared and motivated to study math-engineering-sciences. When a student is ready to begin undergraduate studies and lacks the multi-year sequence of courses in math and the sciences he/she is at a distince disadvantage. Catching up is not impossible but it takes time. A four year undergraduate program becomes a five or six year program. It is easier to choose a liberal arts major. The situation only gets worse when it comes to graduate school. There aren't enough students available who want to do graduate work in math-engineering-science to meet the needs for research projects or to work as graduate teaching assistants. Hence, all those foreign students in the graduate programs in these fields are really providing a much needed source of people to help educate undergraduates and well as to conduct the research to keep our nation competitive in scientific research. The problem isn't that Michigan or other US students aren't being admitted to make room for foreign students, but rather it is the lack of qualified US students that has driven US research universities to admit foreign students, particularly in math-engineerign-science disciplines. The roots of this problem go back to poor educational preparation throughout at least middle and high schools years and perhaps even during elementary years. Other nations, particularly those in Asia and India do a much better job of motivating students to study math and the sciences. Unfortunately many other fiends such as economics, the social and political sciences have and are becoming more analytic so the lack of domestically deucated students that are fluent ins statistical and mathematical modeling skills is compounding the problem. Our students flock to theater, music, writing majors, etc, where they compete ferociously for limited professional opportunities while foreign students have their pick of jobs requiring analytical competence.
Lokalisierung
Wed, Jan 27, 2010 : 3:12 p.m.
Ha. I don't think the sky is falling for uofM applicants. Get real.
voiceofreason
Wed, Jan 27, 2010 : 2:07 p.m.
I don't have any hard data to back this up, but I imagine the majority of people/families leaving the state were formerly employed in manufacturing. Judging by the lack of "first in the family to attend college" students at UofM, I think the current outward migration will have a much greater impact on "directional schools" (and to a lesser extent MSU) than it will at Michigan.
Technojunkie
Wed, Jan 27, 2010 : 10:54 a.m.
Elite schools like UM won't suffer too much. There aren't enough student slots to have a serious shortage of high quality applicants, not yet at least. But admissions standards a notch down have been compromised severely in order to fill admissions slots and maintain the expensive fiction that everyone needs to go to college.
Feat of Clay
Wed, Jan 27, 2010 : 9:36 a.m.
Well, I'll give it a shot. Nonresident apps for the freshman class vastly outnumber resident applications. If the University acted as has been claimed in an earlier comment, the proportion of nonresident would be higher than what we see. In fact, the opposite is true. If two freshman applicants are identical in every way but residency, the resident has an advantage. Even though that non-resident would write a fatter check. I understand why it is sometimes unpopular with the public that the U admits so many nonresidents. But I don't think they fully realize that there are benefits beyond just enhanced revenue. There may be "no shortage" of instate students who wished they could get in to the U, but the U would have to dip a lot lower into its applicant pool to fill its classes with 100% MI residents--and it would take a hit in its national and international prestige. Which would hurt faculty recruiting, and its ability to pull in nearly $1 billion dollars in research funding. As we worry over population loss, I can only think it would be another strike against the state if it no longer had a world-class public flagship. Also, U-M would simply be taking students away from the other publics in the state, who would either have to dip lower in their applicant pool, shrink, or start recruiting from out-of-state themselves.
trespass
Wed, Jan 27, 2010 : 9:12 a.m.
The mix will only change if the University Administration wants it to change. There are plenty of qualified in-state applicants to fill 35% of the freshman class but the University sees little benefit to their self interest to maintain its service to state residents despite the funding and the tax free status of the University. Ann Arbor residents pay much higher property taxes to subsidize the UM. In a recent trial, the UM testified how the admission criteria for the PhD program in Nuclear Engineering had gone up from a GPA of 5.0 to 7.0 (9 point scale)in three years. Was that because the applicant pool of American graduates had improved so much? No, it was because the Chinese government was sending scores of students, who pay out of state tuition and come complete with their own stipend. Why are the residents of Michigan paying taxes to send our nuclear secrets to communist China. Didn't the UM officials read about the recent stealing of secrets from Google and many other American companies. UM gives our secrets away for the cost of out of state tuition and a student stipend.
salineguy
Wed, Jan 27, 2010 : 8:56 a.m.
There will never be a shortage of in-state students wanting to get into UM. As far as officials stopping short of saying whether the mix of in-state and out-of-state undergraduates might change, I'll go ahead and say it. It will. When every out of state student brings in 3x as much as an equally qualified in-stater, the 'U' will take the money. If anybody can rationally counter the above - your turn!