Michigan's unemployment rate dips below 13% as U-M preps economic forecast
The gradual decline in Michigan's unemployment rate continued in October, marking its lowest point since March 2009.
The unemployment rate slipped from 13 percent in September to 12.8 percent in October, according to statistics released this afternoon by the Michigan Department of Energy, Labor and Economic Growth.
The rate's downward trend comes as University of Michigan economists plan to release their 2011-12 economic forecast for Michigan in a presentation at a conference Friday morning. (Watch AnnArbor.com for coverage.)
Michigan's economy is showing signs of life -- at least compared to the original forecast for this year. In November 2009, U-M economists projected that the state's economy would post an average unemployment rate of 15.8 percent in 2010 and 15.4 percent in 2011.
Michigan's highest unemployment rate in 2010 was recorded at 14.3 percent in January.
In October 2010, Michigan gained 19,000 jobs, DELEG reported. That included 9,000 new jobs in education and health services, 5,000 in professional and business services and 3,000 in manufacturing. The leisure and hospital sector lost 6,000 jobs, and the number of positions classified as government jobs dropped 2,000.
Contact AnnArbor.com's Nathan Bomey at (734) 623-2587 or nathanbomey@annarbor.com. You can also follow him on Twitter or subscribe to AnnArbor.com's newsletters.
Comments
Michael Psarouthakis
Fri, Nov 19, 2010 : 6:30 a.m.
AlphaAlpha - thanks for the information and how to search for the U6. I find the U6 numbers somewhat positive as well. Sure would like to see them lower but at least appear to be heading in the right direction.
AlphaAlpha
Thu, Nov 18, 2010 : 10:59 p.m.
Hello fasteddy3579 - A good working definition of U-6: All the people who are either unemployed or underemployed. The commonly reported unemployment number is U-3, which 'assumes' that those who exhaust their benefits magically no longer want a job. Shazam. But U-3 makes the politicians look better. When we read that unemployment during the previous depression was 25%, it was 25%, and that rate was calculated the same way that U-6 is today. So, it's not as bad now as it was then; the larger question is this: Will the economy worsen again, like it did during the 1930's? It is quite likely that it will for reasons beyond the scope of this article, but nothing is preordained, and maybe the economy will continue it's slow improvement. Hopefully this answers your questions; please post again if not. Good luck. Persist, and you will succeed.
AlphaAlpha
Thu, Nov 18, 2010 : 10:42 p.m.
Michael Psarouthakis - thanks for asking. Yes, there was a trend down of 0.1 to 0.3%, depending upon whether one uses 'seasonally adjusted' numbers or not. You can see these #s at the BLS site; just type U6 into the search field atop the BLS home page. Note, when BLS uses the word 'unemployed' below, they are using the 'legal definition' of the word, not the common meaning of the word. (These numbers may not format quite properly here; it was this or risk a link not getting through. The formatting appears ok in the Comment box here.) From the BLS: U-6 [U-6 = Total 'unemployed', plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force] Seasonally adjusted Oct. 2009 17.4 June 2010 16.5 July 2010 16.5 Aug. 2010 16.7 Sept. 2010 17.1 Oct. 2010 17.0 Not seasonally adjusted: Oct. 2009 16.3 Sept. 2010 16.2 Oct. 2010 15.9
goingfast3579
Thu, Nov 18, 2010 : 10:53 a.m.
I enjoyed all posts (5) as of this read. Can someone explain to a laymen what U6 is? I live in Ypsilanti and have seen some new business or those to come which is good news. I have seen film crews here and know of nobody hired by them and no positive economic impact.I have been out of work due to an injury for 5 years with no government help was I counted. My last paying job was a temp. Production worker $9.00 an hr. 80+ hrs. a week. When Company wanted to hire full time. I was relocated never even got credits for unemployment. I know someone that get's S.S.D. and is still getting Unemployment extensions for years. Is he counted? People that say run out this month are they counted? I just don't think these number's are anywhere correct. Maybe someone at A2.com could run a online poll to try to get real time numbers. Thanks
Michael Psarouthakis
Thu, Nov 18, 2010 : 8:49 a.m.
AlphaAlpha, what was the U6 rate for Michigan in September 2010? Just curios to see if that is also trending down. Thanks.
Sam
Thu, Nov 18, 2010 : 8:39 a.m.
If the schools are so "strapped" for money..where did 9,000 new education jobs come from? And, why wouldn't these be considered government jobs?
AlphaAlpha
Wed, Nov 17, 2010 : 11:20 p.m.
Mr. Bomey & all - It's important to know that the 'unemployment rate' as calculated today is much different from the way unemployment rates were calculated historically. Guess who-politicians-encouraged BLS to derive new ways of measuring unemployment a few decades back. The BLS has a U6 unemployment statistic which calculates unemployment the old way; U6 has been relegated to obscurity with no complaints from the politicians. U3 is the number which gets the media coverage today. U3 ignores 'discouraged' workers. U6 includes all those looking for employment. U6 was 17% last month.
AlphaAlpha
Wed, Nov 17, 2010 : 11 p.m.
Agreed DonBee. Hard to believe no MSM personality hasn't advocated the idea of having all the 'discouraged workers' simultaneously descend upon the unemployment offices, and getting back on the list of unemployed seeking employment. The unemployment rate would likely double in one day, reflecting reality much better than the contrived U3 unemployment numbers do today.
DonBee
Wed, Nov 17, 2010 : 6:52 p.m.
I have to wonder, how many people fell into the "discouraged" category and stopped being counted versus the number that found jobs. I don't see that information in the article.