Michigan's population loss surprising only because more people didn't leave state
OK, so Michigan was the only state in the country to have lost population over the past decade, according to the recently released 2010 census.
Anyone who lived through the state’s lost decade shouldn’t have been surprised.
Michigan basically has ridden a one-horse economy over the past century, and that horse—the domestic auto industry—nearly died in 2009.
As a result of the industry’s implosion and the Great Recession, Michigan lost almost 20 percent (!) of its jobs in the past 10 years. That caused many to leave the state, searching for greener employment pastures elsewhere.
There were other factors at play, as well. Births in the state fell 11.1 percent between 2000 and 2008, the biggest decline in the country.
Michigan didn’t attract many immigrants, who fueled population growth in states such as California and Texas.
And a 2008 study by Ann Arbor-based think tank Michigan Future Inc. found that nearly half of Michigan’s college graduates were leaving the state within a year of getting their sheepskins.
The surprise is that Michigan lost just 54,804 residents, down 0.6 percent from 2000 when 9,938,444 people called the state home.
It’s not all bad news. Sure, Michigan is going to lose a congressional seat and cash from Washington.
But it might be easier these days to get a weekend tee time. If you live in a metropolitan area, you may have noticed less traffic snarling your daily commute.
And fewer residents mean less competition for new jobs that are predicted to come available as the state crawls out of its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.
Most of us think growth is better than decline, but an expanding population doesn’t necessarily translate to a healthier economy.
Take Nevada. Its population grew 35 percent over the past decade, the fastest rate in the county. But it also has the highest unemployment rate at 14.3 percent.
“If you look at the states with the largest percentage population growth, they are largely low-income, high-poverty, relatively high-unemployment, low-education states,” said Michigan Future President Lou Glazer. “Who wants to be like them?”
Conservative commentators say the population gains of red states, largely in the South, and declines in blue states show people are voting with their feet against liberal political ideology.
Maybe so. But the steady population march to the south and west has been going on for decades and for many reasons, not the least of which is better weather.
Glazer said he’s more troubled by the plunge in Michigan’s per capita income. The state ranked 37th in per capita income in 2009, down from 18th in 2000.
That points to a larger problem than population loss. Michigan isn’t just getting smaller; it’s becoming older and poorer.
People over the age of 65 are expected to make up 16 percent of the state’s population in 2020, up from 12 percent in 2000, according to census estimates.
But the situation is far from hopeless. Michigan has spectacular natural resources, an outstanding university system and a history of bouncing back strong from adversity.
It has a new governor in Rick Snyder who promises to reinvent Michigan into a more attractive, entrepreneurial and globally competitive state.
And despite Michigan’s recent population loss, there are still nearly 9.9 million brains here that can help him achieve that goal.
Rick Haglund writes this column weekly for Business Review on AnnArbor.com. Contact him by email.
Comments
groland
Wed, Jan 5, 2011 : 9:52 p.m.
Sorry alpha, I don't know abut sun spots but if you believe that oil prices are going to be lower then you are living a fantasy. The emerging economies of China and India will continue to drive up demand. They are only just getting started. Couple this to the higher costs of drilling ever deeper or further our at sea and you will see continued and sustained price increases even for staples such as coal. China already is the worlds largest consumer of coal and they will surpass us in oil consumption too.
AlphaAlpha
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 6:30 p.m.
"Global climate change and increased energy prices will help save Michigan." Quite unlikely; growing substantial evidence has the sun as the dominant atmospheric temperature regulator on planets and moons throughout our solar system. Incidentally, the sunspots have been in reduced number for several years now; if this continues, we will likely experience a cool spell similar to that which took place after the Maunder (sunspot) Minimum just a couple centuries ago; perhaps Winter Wonderland is the marketing strategy. Also, counter intuitive as it may seem, oil prices (likely all energy) will be moving lower over the next many years due to two primary factors: the general deflation which thus far has affected every asset class except commodities, and, the accelerated trend toward energy efficiency and especially electric vehicles, will be an oil and OPEC game changer.
tosviol8or
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 5:09 p.m.
If you look at the states with the largest percentage population growth, they are largely low-income, high-poverty, relatively high-unemployment, low-education states, said Michigan Future President Lou Glazer...(Michigan)ranked 37th in per capita income in 2009, down from 18th in 2000. And Michigan is largely low-income, high-poverty, relatively high-unemployment, and low-education. That goes to show that the population loss is higher-income people, or at best wages are declining for those who stay. Glazer thinks that a mini-version of nation-building (mixed-use urban redevelopment, etc.) is the panacea for what ails the state--that young educated people will move here without a job, and that in turn will attract job providers seeking talent. Why so many people are all-in on a dubious unproven strategy baffles me. It's as if, "We don't have any good ideas, so let's try a bad one." Global climate change and increased energy prices will help save Michigan. The south and west will become unpleasantly warm and water-poor at the same time the north becomes more temperate, and cooling costs will far exceed heating costs. Want to make education pay and retain those who we educated? Instead of loans and scholarships, give a $2,000 per year state income tax credit, every year, for those who show proof of a degree earned at a Michigan school and file a resident state tax return.
braggslaw
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 3:57 p.m.
The highest earning states are the highest educated states Michigan ranks 36th in degrees per capita...... We are a dumb state and our pay reflects our education
AlphaAlpha
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 3:55 p.m.
Brevity and clarity.
Speechless
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 2:48 p.m.
"... Michigan... ranked 37th in per capita income in 2009, down from 18th in 2000...." The hundreds of thousands of union workers once employed by this state's former manufacturing base during the last century have nearly completed their transformation into convenience store clerks, fast food servers, and WalMart greeters — assuming they found a new job. Welcome to the future! It should also be noted that the many now-outsourced union jobs had the secondary effect of raising compensation levels for related non-union work. The decline of Michigan residents from a ranking of 18th to 37th in only the last decade offers a stark measurement for the great success achieved by an ongoing campaign of corporate class warfare. They've all but finished relocating manufacturing work to other parts of the world where conditions of near-slave labor are embraced. Without strong political will, outsourcing will continue until high fuel costs eventually bring it to a well-deserved demise.
Dog Guy
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 12:23 p.m.
Michigan lost just 54,804 residents? False! Population is not fungible. If 100,000 producers leave Michigan and 100,000 tax parasites enter Michigan, the net is not zero. As always, figures don't lie, but liars can figure.
dotdash
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 12:01 p.m.
I've moved around a lot (grad school, jobs, etc.). Moving means expense, time and energy spent learning a new environment, loneliness, uncertainty, and possibly, the same or worse downsides as the place you moved from. So it does not surprise me that more people have not left: the devil you know is better than the devil you don't. Michigan has a lot going for it (low cost of living, great natural beauty, nice people, better weather than Fargo). :) We're very pleased to be here.
Macabre Sunset
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 11:25 a.m.
If I could sell my home for anywhere near what I paid for it, I would seriously consider leaving the state. I suspect many people feel the same way.
bugjuice
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 11:19 a.m.
Bush cut taxes about 10 years ago. Union membership and power has been in decline since Reagan. At the same time, there has been a decline in the standard of living and the number of people in the American middle class. More working families are now considered poor and earning wages under the poverty level. Workers are being scapegoated and vilified while excuses are made for cutting taxes and giving more money to wealthy capitalists and corporations. And this while all working and middle class Americans, conservative and liberal, suffer. Blaming unions, public employees and working people in unions is misplaced anger ginned up and purposefully promulgated by wealthy corporations and CEO's, conservative politicians and their right wing dupes (Tea Partiers) to divert attention from their theft of the American economy. A strong connection can be made between these circumstances.The old saying rings true. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. At their own expense, we can now add the middle class to the negative side of the ledger.
Technojunkie
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 10:51 a.m.
If people were moving just for better weather people wouldn't be fleeing California. Better weather merely enabled California to get away with being a high-tax, high-regulation state more easily than Michigan could. The prosperous states have decent weather and much more limited governments. We can't do anything about the weather but simplifying the state tax code is a good place to start. The 6% flat business income tax isn't the Michigan FairTax Plan I really want but it'll do and it should be easier to pass. Make it easy to run businesses here and people will be much less likely to leave. Who knows, maybe people will even start moving back as California implodes.
stunhsif
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 10:19 a.m.
Well said braggslaw, the only thing keeping me in this miserable state is my aging parents and being upside down in my house by about 50 grand. I have seriously thought about just calling up my mortgage provider and telling them I am not going to pay them anymore, I could then live payment free for around 18 months like many folks I know that are doing that right now. That would save me enough money to pay my moving expenses to somewhere warmer and sunnier. Utah or New Mexico sounds good.
braggslaw
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 9:24 a.m.
I moved away when I graduated, worked and went to grad school, and them moved back to the state to take care of my aging parents. It was one of the worst financial moves I ever made. BUT from a family perspective, it was one of the best. These types of existing connections keep people tied to Michigan, once these connections disappear many people will likely move.
Soothslayer
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 9:17 a.m.
I think alot of folks don't even have the resources to pack up and migrate.
braggslaw
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 9:08 a.m.
I thought this commentary was a bit polly-annish. The structural problems in this state(taxes, unions etc.) send businesses running, along with the high paying engineering, accounting etc. jobs. The weather in Michigan also sucks. The university system is a red herring. Schools like Florida Georgia, Georgia Tech etc. were once considered second tier, but population growth has allowed them to be more selective and their fortunes and students have improved because of the wealth increase in the south. Wayne State is a huge university but the quality of its undergraduate population is pathetic. That is driven by a lack of selectivity because of financial needs, they need to put butts in the desks to pay the bills.
DonBee
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 8:46 a.m.
The statistics don't really tell the whole story. Come to the Detroit Airport on a Sunday evening or a Monday morning and talk to the folks getting on airplanes, thousands of Michigan residents are flying to Tennessee, California, and elsewhere to work. They used to work here, now they live here and work in other parts of the country. Planes are packed. It is repeated at every airport in the state. Our best and brightest are not just leaving to take up residence elsewhere, many of us who are stuck here are traveling full time to work elsewhere. The talent on a Sunday evening plane is almost unbelievable. If you want to hire a full team of engineers and program managers, fly on Sunday evening or Monday morning. These are folks who's skills are valued enough that companies are paying the extra to fly them every week. If you want the real numbers of "leavers" count those on the planes, because when home prices start coming back, they will be selling and moving on, unless we can fix our state. Many of us would love to stay and work full time in the state.
AlphaAlpha
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 8:26 a.m.
Additionally, the manner in which unemployment insurance benefits are distributed provide a disincentive for recipients to relocate.
spm
Sun, Jan 2, 2011 : 8:12 a.m.
Another reason, so I've read, for Michigan's lower population lost, is the fact that Michigan has one of the highest home-owner population and if a out of work home owner can't sell their house they aren't leaving the state. I personally know more than a few unemployed home-owners who are staying put for that very reason.