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Posted on Thu, Apr 21, 2011 : 5:52 a.m.

Michigan economic report shows why wealth creation tied to strong private and public sectors

By Rick Haglund

Automakers are churning out billions of dollars in profits, and jobs are returning to Michigan after a decade of severe economic pain.

So why are schools, and state and local governments struggling with so many budget problems?

A new University of Michigan study says it’s because the damage from the auto industry’s meltdown over the past 10 years was even deeper than we knew and continues to be felt today.

The study lead by Roland Zullo, an assistant research scientist at U-M’s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment and the Economy, found that every lost auto job resulted in eight additional jobs losses between 2001 and 2008.

Previous studies have found that about three other jobs are eliminated in the economy for every lost auto job.

And related job losses resulting from layoffs or plant closings in the auto industry continue to occur for at least four years after the initial auto job cuts, the study found.

Zullo said it takes about two years before state and local governments feel the fiscal impact of private-sector job losses. It was two years ago that General Motors and Chrysler filed for bankruptcy.

“The nadir of the auto industry was in 2009,” Zullo said. “Because the industry is just so huge here, we’re feeling the aftershock in the public sector.”

Michigan was the only state in the country to experience a decline in state government general fund revenues over the past decade, according to the Treasury Department. General fund revenues fell 25 percent between 2000 and 2009.

Nearly 6,000 jobs have been lost in state and local government just in the past three months.

“What really hit us as a surprise was the loss of teaching jobs,” Zullo said.

While elementary and secondary school employment rose statewide in the period Zullo studied, it plunged in counties hit by auto job losses.

That’s a troubling sign because Michigan’s future will depend heavily on how well its work force is educated.

Budgets must be balanced, of course. But Zullo warns against a knee-jerk dismantling of the public sector through overzealous budget cutting, particularly in education and transportation.

Small-government advocates say the best way to create jobs and improve the economy is for government to simply get out of the way of private enterprise.

But Zullo says the private and public sectors are inextricably linked in wealth creation.

“You want a strong public sector,” he said. “A strong public sector gives you an infrastructure that allows the private sector to thrive.”

For example, the interstate highway system, started during the administration of President Dwight Eisenhower in the 1950s, led to an explosion of auto industry growth.

And the Internet, arguably the most economically important (and disruptive) invention of the past 30 years, was developed by the military.

State and local government revenues likely will rise again as Michigan’s economy improves. But the rebound won’t be as strong as it was in past recoveries because auto industry employment is only a third as large as it was a decade ago.

Zullo’s advice for Gov. Rick Snyder? Invest state resources in developing an export-driven economy that brings more wealth to Michigan.

“If I had the governor’s ear, what I would do is tell him to take a careful inventory of what’s already here,” said. “Look at who is exporting and figure out how the state can help.

“The easiest approach to improving the economy is to expand what we already have.”

Email Rick Haglund at haglund.rick@gmail.com.

Comments

RayA2

Thu, Apr 21, 2011 : 4:22 p.m.

If the school budget cuts continue, all hope will be lost for manufacturing in this state. I think that the resulting destruction of the middle class and destruction of citizens' abilities to critically evaluate what they are told is the heart of the republican playbook.

Dcam

Thu, Apr 21, 2011 : 12:32 p.m.

It would be nice if Mr. Haglund re-visited his banner Ann Arbor News headline story (2002, or so) about University of Michigan economists demanding that Michigan get rid of manufacturing, and the quicker the better. They said the state couldn't afford 'low-skill' jobs and those kinds of jobs and workers were dragging the economy down. Michigan needed financial, healthcare and techincal jobs - those kinds of jobs are high-skill, high-pay and are the future of Michigan's economic strength. Naturally, I, as usual, disagreed and said it was insane thinking. But, I was alone - Mr. Haglund and Gov. Granholm praised the findings, and they blessed the UM as being the beacon to bright tomorrows.

Dcam

Thu, Apr 21, 2011 : 6:16 p.m.

Well...I think referencing the Ann Arbor News headline story is about as much proof as can be had - and Rick Haglund wrote the story. The headlines were hard to miss, too. They were at least two inch bold face across the whole page. Without directly quoting, but pretty close, the UM economists said that Michigan can no longer afford manufacturing jobs, and the sooner they leave the state, the better - those kinds of jobs wouldn't support the Michigan economy. There was no missing the point clearly made.

johnnya2

Thu, Apr 21, 2011 : 2:05 p.m.

It is proper form to link or give some proof when making an assertion that "University of Michigan economists demanding that Michigan get rid of manufacturing". Taking your word on something that is 9 years old is not really the recipe for a good argument. Second, things have changed in the 9 years since 2002.Those "financial" jobs were cut to hell in the crash of 2008. These fields have also changed considerably since 2002.

northside

Thu, Apr 21, 2011 : 11:37 a.m.

Great article. We're living in an era when many think of the private and public sectors as two opposing forces, making it easy to forget that the two can work toward the same goals. The highway/auto industry example is a classic one of how government infrastructure benefits the private sector.